{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e26b379-b381-490f-ab60-96486722a587", "symbol": "XLB", "name": "SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST STATE STREET MTRLS SLCT SCTR SPDR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.678, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.115, "architecture_energy": 23.738, "architecture_maturity": 28.988, "architecture_confidence": 47.338, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.92, "rotation_up": 42.06, "upward_expansion": 67.58, "deceleration": 64.8, "rotation_down": 26.53, "downward_expansion": 10.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.45, 51.405677, 51.254547, 51.066244 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.86, "trend_reference": 50.839226, "distance_from_trend": 0.039748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.182358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196405, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.029119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030704, "excess_performance": -0.094921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046574, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196405, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004562, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00926, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.569228, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62980232, "relative_activity": 1.112063, "balance": 0.569228, "dry_up": 0.99344, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036527, "annualized_volatility": 0.187242, "from_high_reference": -0.019366, "from_low_reference": 0.269472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.839226, "fair_value_reference": 44.182358, "structural_low": 46.526199, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.015329, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.001186, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.0683, "worst_return": -0.118808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074181, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.003262, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.113523, "worst_return": -0.137855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191919, "worst_return": 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50.789459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.89, "volume": 63714894, "typical_volume": 63236637.85, "trend": 50.163902, "fair_value": 43.886339, "relative_strength": -3.640231, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.984212, "energy": 28.99621, "activity_lines": [ 51.500595, 51.290767, 51.054872, 50.849562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.53, "volume": 45928237, "typical_volume": 61985378.4, "trend": 50.350136, "fair_value": 43.955835, "relative_strength": -2.72289, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.384713, "energy": 13.852811, "activity_lines": [ 51.137118, 51.18504, 51.030444, 50.873181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.26, "volume": 52720239, "typical_volume": 59273015.9, "trend": 50.528506, "fair_value": 44.025394, "relative_strength": -0.656255, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.332085, "energy": 13.646905, "activity_lines": [ 51.114, 51.227815, 51.088144, 50.931882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.43, "volume": 63419969, "typical_volume": 57890965.4, "trend": 50.678877, "fair_value": 44.094796, "relative_strength": -3.270965, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.900172, "energy": 12.514549, "activity_lines": [ 50.838, 51.098815, 51.059094, 50.925527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.86, "volume": 62980232, "typical_volume": 56633674.95, "trend": 50.839226, "fair_value": 44.182358, "relative_strength": -2.029119, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.114564, "energy": 23.737886, "activity_lines": [ 51.45, 51.405677, 51.254547, 51.066244 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }