{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e275bce-aab9-480a-b81e-f1b0027408c7", "symbol": "EUCA4", "name": "Eucatex S.A. Ind\u00fastria e Com\u00e9rcio", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.753, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.506, "architecture_energy": 20.55, "architecture_maturity": 46.252, "architecture_confidence": 74.513, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.76, "rotation_up": 15.05, "upward_expansion": 42.16, "deceleration": 83.29, "rotation_down": 41.74, "downward_expansion": 33.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.534667, 23.116364, 23.706048, 23.217204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.610001, "trend_reference": 22.436333, "distance_from_trend": 0.00774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.586104, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.450651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.208124, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1305, "excess_performance": 0.187548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00774, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.450651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.102081, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1305, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.823533, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231300, "relative_activity": 0.789608, "balance": 1.823533, "dry_up": 1.072184, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077229, "annualized_volatility": 0.360769, "from_high_reference": -0.193364, "from_low_reference": 0.469905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.436333, "fair_value_reference": 15.586104, "structural_low": 19.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010251, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.016218, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.20346, "worst_return": -0.181075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075295, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.012645, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.336624, "worst_return": -0.178359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098896, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001301, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.418503, "worst_return": -0.123832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03252, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091255, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 27.720259, "activity_lines": [ 24.598667, 25.118, 23.966429, 23.01321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.209999, "volume": 368700, "typical_volume": 258435.0, "trend": 21.78767, "fair_value": 15.28528, "relative_strength": 10.179123, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.544864, "energy": 24.655035, "activity_lines": [ 24.064666, 24.803091, 23.986714, 23.119178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.42, "volume": 493200, "typical_volume": 276365.0, "trend": 21.964256, "fair_value": 15.363866, "relative_strength": 8.833395, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.695054, "energy": 20.019591, "activity_lines": [ 23.403333, 24.313091, 23.925524, 23.159973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.639999, "volume": 265700, "typical_volume": 283040.0, "trend": 22.112333, "fair_value": 15.433685, "relative_strength": 4.795551, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.572962, "energy": 19.955713, "activity_lines": [ 22.707333, 23.69, 23.786619, 23.139054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.0, "volume": 266100, "typical_volume": 288130.0, "trend": 22.286333, "fair_value": 15.509799, "relative_strength": 8.8066, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.368365, "energy": 20.635455, "activity_lines": [ 22.656666, 23.400909, 23.773047, 23.196322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.610001, "volume": 231300, "typical_volume": 292930.0, "trend": 22.436333, "fair_value": 15.586104, "relative_strength": 10.208124, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.506198, "energy": 20.550081, "activity_lines": [ 22.534667, 23.116364, 23.706048, 23.217204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }