{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e278619-941f-455f-88e3-700e1b4d6ade", "symbol": "BANC", "name": "Banc of California, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.465, "architecture_energy": 16.371, "architecture_maturity": 50.004, "architecture_confidence": 65.971, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.98, "rotation_up": 31.58, "upward_expansion": 66.61, "deceleration": 82.22, "rotation_down": 31.51, "downward_expansion": 18.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.800667, 20.102179, 19.72184, 19.326163 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.73, "trend_reference": 19.105312, "distance_from_trend": -0.019644, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.006011, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.799332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.089827, "excess_performance": -0.215452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02884, "read": "Rising" 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16.137098, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.015782, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.005329, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.15655, "worst_return": -0.161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020573, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002918, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.098054, "worst_return": -0.130509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058436, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.042943, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.103763, "worst_return": -0.140692, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.590018, "energy": 75.065703, "activity_lines": [ 20.943333, 20.539223, 19.746798, 19.352234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.15, "volume": 32124332, "typical_volume": 15086754.85, "trend": 19.141267, "fair_value": 14.965979, "relative_strength": -3.361094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.734258, "energy": 38.023124, "activity_lines": [ 20.386667, 20.363007, 19.760482, 19.352697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.73, "volume": 16311453, "typical_volume": 15020020.15, "trend": 19.105312, "fair_value": 15.006011, "relative_strength": -8.799332, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.465041, "energy": 16.371409, "activity_lines": [ 19.800667, 20.102179, 19.72184, 19.326163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }