{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e2853ac-a6e0-4a94-bb56-ecf4be3b8028", "symbol": "002690", "name": "Hefei Meyer Optoelectronic Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.729, "architecture_energy": 23.693, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.717, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.02, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 20.71, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 24.82, "downward_expansion": 57.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.163333, 14.882909, 15.244539, 15.882948 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.34, "trend_reference": 16.955746, "distance_from_trend": -0.095292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.467609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.514857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.219405, "excess_performance": -0.226805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068474, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044105, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.829834, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28523777, "relative_activity": 1.130881, "balance": 0.829834, "dry_up": 1.437148, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06229, "annualized_volatility": 0.281579, "from_high_reference": -0.300204, "from_low_reference": 0.107581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.955746, "fair_value_reference": 16.467609, "structural_low": 13.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.033011, "positive_rate": 0.269231, "directional_follow_through": 0.730769, "median_excess_return": -0.026133, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.266455, "worst_return": -0.247143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.090503, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.083045, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.261538, "worst_return": -0.361495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.194236, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.096386, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.426876, "worst_return": -0.384173, "sufficient": 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14.433333, 14.765028, 15.629867, 16.464637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.47, "volume": 35268825, "typical_volume": 23269160.35, "trend": 17.414655, "fair_value": 16.610966, "relative_strength": -20.136056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.882134, "energy": 58.801118, "activity_lines": [ 14.442, 14.626545, 15.446703, 16.263061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.71, "volume": 38672972, "typical_volume": 23711287.2, "trend": 17.253458, "fair_value": 16.559992, "relative_strength": -18.710181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.164481, "energy": 51.38223, "activity_lines": [ 14.528, 14.587455, 15.309148, 16.088567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.83, "volume": 42528992, "typical_volume": 24800870.8, "trend": 17.103635, "fair_value": 16.512041, "relative_strength": -10.834143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.106307, "energy": 34.198338, "activity_lines": [ 14.993333, 14.778, 15.294878, 15.996731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.34, "volume": 28523777, "typical_volume": 25222614.35, "trend": 16.955746, "fair_value": 16.467609, "relative_strength": -17.514857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.72918, "energy": 23.693133, "activity_lines": [ 15.163333, 14.882909, 15.244539, 15.882948 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }