{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e2c16af-e1a0-4ed6-b98c-1ab7a7372333", "symbol": "PXH", "name": "INVESCO RAFI EMERGING MARKETS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.434, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.807, "architecture_energy": 54.736, "architecture_maturity": 35.986, "architecture_confidence": 81.213, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.29, "rotation_up": 61.72, "upward_expansion": 84.07, "deceleration": 47.04, "rotation_down": 16.64, "downward_expansion": 13.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.815333, 28.517471, 28.403957, 28.168623 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.3, "trend_reference": 27.90929, "distance_from_trend": 0.04983, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.631813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.354487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.009679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052401, "excess_performance": -0.073224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04983, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.354487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044738, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052401, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.807014, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 763664, "relative_activity": 0.638697, "balance": 1.807014, "dry_up": 0.729581, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031935, "annualized_volatility": 0.172055, "from_high_reference": -0.01446, "from_low_reference": 0.262061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.90929, "fair_value_reference": 21.631813, "structural_low": 25.79836, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.006186, "positive_rate": 0.617647, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.00978, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.065789, "worst_return": -0.14162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037166, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.000442, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.11607, "worst_return": -0.186093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038091, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.057391, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.20418, "worst_return": -0.176718, "sufficient": true }, { 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"up", "direction": 37.543641, "energy": 16.909395, "activity_lines": [ 28.131393, 28.2226, 28.100052, 27.909123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.09, "volume": 765573, "typical_volume": 1400610.85, "trend": 27.636665, "fair_value": 21.403016, "relative_strength": -2.06641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.282427, "energy": 16.057295, "activity_lines": [ 28.089112, 28.181053, 28.125203, 27.944185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.35, "volume": 867373, "typical_volume": 1348455.15, "trend": 27.722052, "fair_value": 21.47256, "relative_strength": -0.643143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.632989, "energy": 15.250781, "activity_lines": [ 28.169333, 28.203016, 28.176634, 27.990207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.0, "volume": 1092712, "typical_volume": 1290741.1, "trend": 27.812498, "fair_value": 21.549972, "relative_strength": 0.436951, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.033856, "energy": 37.176208, "activity_lines": [ 28.489333, 28.339409, 28.281901, 28.072655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.3, "volume": 763664, "typical_volume": 1195659.2, "trend": 27.90929, "fair_value": 21.631813, "relative_strength": -2.009679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.806753, "energy": 54.73632, "activity_lines": [ 28.815333, 28.517471, 28.403957, 28.168623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }