{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e2dfccf-6313-4563-a5b7-4d969734287a", "symbol": "ALVGO", "name": "Vogo SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.166, "architecture_energy": 65.85, "architecture_maturity": 13.873, "architecture_confidence": 69.55, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.31, "rotation_up": 67.17, "upward_expansion": 51.26, "deceleration": 23.52, "rotation_down": 14.27, "downward_expansion": 28.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.134333, 2.055091, 1.969548, 1.98343 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 2.047333, "distance_from_trend": 0.123413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.103548, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.699284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008621, "excess_performance": -0.061932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07493, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.22862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008621, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.393694, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4432, "relative_activity": 4.996899, "balance": 4.393694, "dry_up": 2.037319, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055518, "annualized_volatility": 0.605537, "from_high_reference": -0.163636, "from_low_reference": 0.381381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.047333, "fair_value_reference": 3.103548, "structural_low": 1.665, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003402, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008503, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.148472, "worst_return": -0.142593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.135135, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.138966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268409, "worst_return": -0.338889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.051802, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095252, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.014252, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.259787, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.364277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.223278, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010169, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012245, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.124434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026786, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.02, "volume": 1108, "typical_volume": 13760.35, "trend": 4.040333, "fair_value": 6.790705, "relative_strength": -8.754714, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.30201, "energy": 14.769137, "activity_lines": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.958333, 1.911273, 1.907524, 1.977161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.915, "volume": 32, "typical_volume": 659.9, "trend": 2.077333, "fair_value": 3.140471, "relative_strength": -19.466529, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.327487, "energy": 10.837184, "activity_lines": [ 1.934333, 1.920455, 1.904262, 1.964978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.93, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 588.45, "trend": 2.052667, "fair_value": 3.126817, "relative_strength": -18.568633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.43713, "energy": 11.670243, "activity_lines": [ 1.931, 1.929727, 1.904071, 1.955473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.24, "volume": 2761, "typical_volume": 709.9, "trend": 2.054, "fair_value": 3.114958, "relative_strength": -6.447236, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 21.72126, "energy": 34.345031, "activity_lines": [ 2.032333, 1.990545, 1.933833, 1.967559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 4432, "typical_volume": 886.95, "trend": 2.047333, "fair_value": 3.103548, "relative_strength": -5.699284, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.166078, "energy": 65.850088, "activity_lines": [ 2.134333, 2.055091, 1.969548, 1.98343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }