{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e2ef435-05f5-4a07-a155-95a1839a3b53", "symbol": "MIB", "name": "Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.7, "architecture_energy": 67.035, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.873, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 56.55, "upward_expansion": 85.31, "deceleration": 68.23, "rotation_down": 28.51, "downward_expansion": 11.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.877333, 53.595454, 52.263476, 50.712161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 55.07, "trend_reference": 48.842167, "distance_from_trend": 0.127509, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.687996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.41122, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.202402, "excess_performance": 0.14909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069366, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114112, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.432404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51333, "relative_activity": 1.446709, "balance": 1.432404, "dry_up": 1.0573, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026183, "annualized_volatility": 0.182139, "from_high_reference": -0.005238, "from_low_reference": 0.352303 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.842167, "fair_value_reference": 36.687996, "structural_low": 41.654999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": 0.015758, "positive_rate": 0.632653, "directional_follow_through": 0.632653, "median_excess_return": 0.006579, "regime_survival": 0.816327, "best_return": 0.139867, "worst_return": -0.153995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.046803, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": 0.03817, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.136295, "worst_return": -0.090632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.121644, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.081846, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.233338, "worst_return": -0.187075, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.796573, "energy": 69.206762, "activity_lines": [ 53.435334, 52.851, 51.055571, 49.629032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.009998, "volume": 46018, "typical_volume": 40850.95, "trend": 48.249167, "fair_value": 36.319234, "relative_strength": 12.430057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.715857, "energy": 63.182224, "activity_lines": [ 53.285333, 53.010363, 51.421881, 49.954365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.450001, "volume": 28340, "typical_volume": 40092.85, "trend": 48.525, "fair_value": 36.497349, "relative_strength": 11.127235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.910792, "energy": 59.161524, "activity_lines": [ 53.345333, 53.182909, 51.787524, 50.289903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.07, "volume": 51333, "typical_volume": 35482.6, "trend": 48.842167, "fair_value": 36.687996, "relative_strength": 11.41122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.700468, "energy": 67.035035, "activity_lines": [ 53.877333, 53.595454, 52.263476, 50.712161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }