{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e365099-8b78-4bab-9ce9-87cb5c48b8e5", "symbol": "HQF", "name": "High Quality Food S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.452, "architecture_energy": 30.466, "architecture_maturity": 17.162, "architecture_confidence": 84.954, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.84, "rotation_up": 13.82, "upward_expansion": 2.89, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 54.89, "downward_expansion": 76.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.498733, 0.506836, 0.511357, 0.511929 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.49, "trend_reference": 0.5238, "distance_from_trend": -0.064528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.638013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23199, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.748121, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.172297, "excess_performance": -0.343189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23199, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045862, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001553, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172297, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.415061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108000, "relative_activity": 0.59615, "balance": 4.415061, "dry_up": 0.289795, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098587, "annualized_volatility": 0.502112, "from_high_reference": -0.279412, "from_low_reference": 0.091314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.5238, "fair_value_reference": 0.638013, "structural_low": 0.449, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.064967, "positive_rate": 0.071429, "directional_follow_through": 0.071429, "median_excess_return": -0.08614, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.02649, "worst_return": -0.194203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.137466, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.243313, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.062914, "worst_return": -0.221951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.152806, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.218968, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075862, "worst_return": -0.292683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.210858, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.36055, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.182692, "worst_return": -0.239024, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033898, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019868, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", 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0.655962, "relative_strength": -19.685352, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.789192, "energy": 15.500833, "activity_lines": [ 0.543667, 0.532073, 0.515605, 0.526071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.496, "volume": 11250, "typical_volume": 247387.5, "trend": 0.542167, "fair_value": 0.651769, "relative_strength": -25.012294, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.903696, "energy": 12.940071, "activity_lines": [ 0.523333, 0.527545, 0.513857, 0.522869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.505, "volume": 93750, "typical_volume": 249900.0, "trend": 0.5388, "fair_value": 0.648276, "relative_strength": -22.829824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.628766, "energy": 21.094924, "activity_lines": [ 0.5136, 0.524727, 0.513367, 0.520471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.51, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 180562.5, "trend": 0.535867, "fair_value": 0.645359, "relative_strength": -20.448304, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.878536, "energy": 22.950298, "activity_lines": [ 0.508533, 0.522545, 0.5137, 0.518613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.51, "volume": 31500, "typical_volume": 178575.0, "trend": 0.532867, "fair_value": 0.642699, "relative_strength": -19.819751, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.377353, "energy": 22.819402, "activity_lines": [ 0.5078, 0.520036, 0.514062, 0.516944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.494, "volume": 49500, "typical_volume": 180412.5, "trend": 0.528867, "fair_value": 0.640481, "relative_strength": -22.327709, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.744886, "energy": 23.086194, "activity_lines": [ 0.503067, 0.514109, 0.5129, 0.514437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 108000, "typical_volume": 181162.5, "trend": 0.5238, "fair_value": 0.638013, "relative_strength": -24.748121, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.452084, "energy": 30.466128, "activity_lines": [ 0.498733, 0.506836, 0.511357, 0.511929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }