{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e38eaa7-291e-4af5-9408-462fd3545f30", "symbol": "3511", "name": "Simula Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.796, "architecture_energy": 31.623, "architecture_maturity": 29.067, "architecture_confidence": 72.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.27, "rotation_up": 17.57, "upward_expansion": 20.67, "deceleration": 53.52, "rotation_down": 61.13, "downward_expansion": 45.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.036666, 21.355455, 21.962857, 21.643226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.299999, "trend_reference": 21.301667, "distance_from_trend": -0.047023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.906731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21642, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.695053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.033333, "excess_performance": -0.474705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049138, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1205020, "relative_activity": 0.295536, "balance": 0.561889, "dry_up": 0.349936, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158772, "annualized_volatility": 0.552476, "from_high_reference": -0.341977, "from_low_reference": 0.156695 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.301667, "fair_value_reference": 25.906731, "structural_low": 17.549999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.068657, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.03023, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.050505, "worst_return": -0.081731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064255, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118819, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.02323, "worst_return": -0.379518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.130364, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.160962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.084813, "worst_return": -0.39759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.056624, "energy": 17.859, "activity_lines": [ 23.44, 23.553637, 22.627143, 22.002581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.35, "volume": 1387395, "typical_volume": 3976218.1, "trend": 21.391667, "fair_value": 26.140064, "relative_strength": -30.605676, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.368437, "energy": 11.720066, "activity_lines": [ 22.243334, 23.055455, 22.500476, 21.935054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.1, "volume": 1950807, "typical_volume": 4030656.3, "trend": 21.346667, "fair_value": 26.054808, "relative_strength": -33.270925, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.870405, "energy": 19.659538, "activity_lines": [ 20.936667, 22.32, 22.250476, 21.787204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.15, "volume": 1164108, "typical_volume": 4043024.1, "trend": 21.335, "fair_value": 25.977564, "relative_strength": -30.554354, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.83869, "energy": 26.203324, "activity_lines": [ 20.283333, 21.818182, 22.101905, 21.71 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 1205020, "typical_volume": 4077410.0, "trend": 21.301667, "fair_value": 25.906731, "relative_strength": -31.695053, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.795665, "energy": 31.622879, "activity_lines": [ 20.036666, 21.355455, 21.962857, 21.643226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }