{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e39c0fe-bce1-4690-b072-78638f11e696", "symbol": "4270", "name": "Saudi Printing and Packaging Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.171, "architecture_energy": 41.507, "architecture_maturity": 22.97, "architecture_confidence": 82.281, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.04, "rotation_up": 67.21, "upward_expansion": 47.4, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 21.61, "downward_expansion": 15.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.093333, 7.666909, 7.535286, 7.531247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.72, "trend_reference": 7.582333, "distance_from_trend": 0.150042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.156026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28266, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.722215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072571, "excess_performance": 0.1044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150042, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28266, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125597, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027222, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228886, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.433287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8986825, "relative_activity": 3.203452, "balance": 1.433287, "dry_up": 2.746217, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079834, "annualized_volatility": 0.520622, "from_high_reference": -0.334351, "from_low_reference": 0.408724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.582333, "fair_value_reference": 12.156026, "structural_low": 6.19, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.11188, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.096319, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004773, "worst_return": -0.157042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.161496, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.104408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.015198, "worst_return": -0.189158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.229527, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.167116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.128673, "worst_return": -0.363564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.684175, "energy": 29.224222, "activity_lines": [ 7.119333, 7.127636, 7.320905, 7.411806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.92, "volume": 1484531, "typical_volume": 1712497.5, "trend": 7.542667, "fair_value": 12.298205, "relative_strength": -19.231522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.665541, "energy": 31.463604, "activity_lines": [ 7.062667, 7.081455, 7.273619, 7.36871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.9, "volume": 13535206, "typical_volume": 2360919.15, "trend": 7.558, "fair_value": 12.223205, "relative_strength": 6.522563, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.490575, "energy": 19.417195, "activity_lines": [ 7.671333, 7.405091, 7.41719, 7.45628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.72, "volume": 8986825, "typical_volume": 2805356.8, "trend": 7.582333, "fair_value": 12.156026, "relative_strength": 2.722215, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.171341, "energy": 41.507417, "activity_lines": [ 8.093333, 7.666909, 7.535286, 7.531247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }