{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e42a222-0c05-41c6-9ab7-913498166e1a", "symbol": "ALAGR", "name": "AgroGeneration SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.163, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.916, "architecture_energy": 8.762, "architecture_maturity": 9.042, "architecture_confidence": 52.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.09, "rotation_up": 28.07, "upward_expansion": 49.0, "deceleration": 73.08, "rotation_down": 24.48, "downward_expansion": 24.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.049773, 0.050302, 0.050555, 0.049311 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0488, "trend_reference": 0.0475, "distance_from_trend": 0.027368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.049742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018944, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.683498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150943, "excess_performance": 0.097632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057279, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018944, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.361956, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236126, "relative_activity": 0.38018, "balance": 0.361956, "dry_up": 0.298613, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104035, "annualized_volatility": 0.656717, "from_high_reference": -0.280236, "from_low_reference": 0.478788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0475, "fair_value_reference": 0.049742, "structural_low": 0.036, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018478, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.011557, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.514599, "worst_return": -0.200787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027753, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003633, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.228571, "worst_return": -0.161687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.222727, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.184551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232975, "worst_return": -0.297012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.382979, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108434, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.244186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", 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0.046927, "fair_value": 0.049662, "relative_strength": 11.582175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.023326, "energy": 29.317516, "activity_lines": [ 0.05176, 0.051175, 0.05055, 0.048889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0494, "volume": 162392, "typical_volume": 648396.45, "trend": 0.047073, "fair_value": 0.049692, "relative_strength": 3.612794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.472175, "energy": 24.357993, "activity_lines": [ 0.051107, 0.050851, 0.05061, 0.049048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0496, "volume": 52574, "typical_volume": 613767.4, "trend": 0.04726, "fair_value": 0.049719, "relative_strength": 2.399579, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.23417, "energy": 11.380889, "activity_lines": [ 0.05056, 0.050607, 0.050645, 0.049211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0488, "volume": 236126, "typical_volume": 621089.75, "trend": 0.0475, "fair_value": 0.049742, "relative_strength": -1.683498, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.916224, "energy": 8.761528, "activity_lines": [ 0.049773, 0.050302, 0.050555, 0.049311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }