{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e4360b0-f3ee-4120-a6b5-2cda70096186", "symbol": "MNPR3", "name": "Minupar Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.603, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.707, "architecture_energy": 9.697, "architecture_maturity": 12.641, "architecture_confidence": 80.746, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.87, "rotation_up": 25.86, "upward_expansion": 28.76, "deceleration": 41.54, "rotation_down": 22.78, "downward_expansion": 39.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.003333, 3.987818, 3.969061, 3.992854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 4.03584, "distance_from_trend": -0.013836, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.67556, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.487539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.875624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046578, "excess_performance": 0.01047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.487539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108119, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068756, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03251, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.028885, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22000, "relative_activity": 0.349762, "balance": 1.028885, "dry_up": 0.885135, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050638, "annualized_volatility": 0.226621, "from_high_reference": -0.315574, "from_low_reference": 0.554689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.03584, "fair_value_reference": 2.67556, "structural_low": 3.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02154, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02702, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.513831, "worst_return": -0.149871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.174968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.217218, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.535239, "worst_return": -0.178295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.699048, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.499447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.844576, "worst_return": -0.227391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.370332, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088311, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007841, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109865, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026895, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.553279, "volume": 824000, "typical_volume": 287650.0, "trend": 1.000473, "fair_value": 0.838758, "relative_strength": 77.371616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3.98, "volume": 131400, "typical_volume": 68155.0, "trend": 4.065277, "fair_value": 2.644051, "relative_strength": -7.146841, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.725859, "energy": 10.889798, "activity_lines": [ 4.002667, 3.974364, 3.966877, 4.000775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.01, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 67630.0, "trend": 4.047499, "fair_value": 2.659668, "relative_strength": -8.766525, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.477112, "energy": 11.469934, "activity_lines": [ 4.012, 3.984364, 3.968567, 3.997209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 22000, "typical_volume": 62900.0, "trend": 4.03584, "fair_value": 2.67556, "relative_strength": -6.875624, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.707169, "energy": 9.697107, "activity_lines": [ 4.003333, 3.987818, 3.969061, 3.992854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }