{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e4603e0-0c96-42f8-bb9c-13b6d18c468f", "symbol": "G1SK34", "name": "GSK plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.381, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.915, "architecture_energy": 20.291, "architecture_maturity": 14.826, "architecture_confidence": 62.065, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.99, "rotation_up": 21.66, "upward_expansion": 17.09, "deceleration": 54.82, "rotation_down": 44.15, "downward_expansion": 62.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.002666, 53.185272, 52.891023, 53.604965 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.849998, "trend_reference": 54.379719, "distance_from_trend": -0.009741, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.909351, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.254971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.351243, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125025, "excess_performance": -0.067977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009741, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.254971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069533, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013512, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156087, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125025, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.003862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47, "relative_activity": 0.014299, "balance": 0.003862, "dry_up": 4.949118, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037678, "annualized_volatility": 0.274821, "from_high_reference": -0.141674, "from_low_reference": 0.358656 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.379719, "fair_value_reference": 42.909351, "structural_low": 48.313702, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037318, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.011412, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.082454, "worst_return": -0.051895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007594, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.116724, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186222, "worst_return": -0.324649, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056814, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.06807, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.427903, "worst_return": -0.369449, "sufficient": 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54.295403, "fair_value": 42.011812, "relative_strength": 1.581207, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.527017, "energy": 23.485693, "activity_lines": [ 53.059999, 52.168643, 53.373401, 54.055729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 53.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 62.7, "trend": 54.341167, "fair_value": 42.166138, "relative_strength": -0.516918, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.343669, "energy": 29.310899, "activity_lines": [ 53.356666, 52.41489, 53.229059, 53.991509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.049999, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 61.65, "trend": 54.440343, "fair_value": 42.330144, "relative_strength": 0.611487, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.355091, "energy": 19.714847, "activity_lines": [ 54.109999, 53.014562, 53.28394, 54.03724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.0, "volume": 60231, "typical_volume": 3057.2, "trend": 54.435091, "fair_value": 42.476279, "relative_strength": -0.88624, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.478447, "energy": 16.532769, "activity_lines": [ 53.766666, 53.179454, 53.171172, 53.944315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.5, "volume": 4757, "typical_volume": 3293.65, "trend": 54.371635, "fair_value": 42.612572, "relative_strength": -3.844689, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.137431, "energy": 16.542386, "activity_lines": [ 53.02, 52.992727, 52.949306, 53.754954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.560001, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 3284.9, "trend": 54.363201, "fair_value": 42.759248, "relative_strength": -4.010972, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.494117, "energy": 19.40787, "activity_lines": [ 52.746667, 52.984545, 52.853611, 53.638075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.849998, "volume": 47, "typical_volume": 3287.0, "trend": 54.379719, "fair_value": 42.909351, "relative_strength": 1.351243, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.915138, "energy": 20.291346, "activity_lines": [ 53.002666, 53.185272, 52.891023, 53.604965 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }