{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e48727c-1083-4298-a814-a3b6dd32d3a7", "symbol": "REFR", "name": "Research Frontiers Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.374, "architecture_energy": 60.423, "architecture_maturity": 89.19, "architecture_confidence": 92.536, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 21.69, "upward_expansion": 10.67, "deceleration": 54.31, "rotation_down": 60.51, "downward_expansion": 84.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.470707, 0.507256, 0.612562, 0.700066 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.4865, "trend_reference": 0.831793, "distance_from_trend": -0.415119, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.414457, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.656052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.510285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.565625, "excess_performance": -0.753079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.415119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.656052, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.635103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.565625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 639021, "relative_activity": 2.825259, "balance": 0.945153, "dry_up": 1.670615, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.240897, "annualized_volatility": 0.782977, "from_high_reference": -0.819815, "from_low_reference": 0.39 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.831793, "fair_value_reference": 1.414457, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.045226, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.059172, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.637255, "worst_return": -0.269041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013078, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.447368, "worst_return": -0.412966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.136451, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.255486, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.01227, "worst_return": -0.589474, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 0.542313, 0.597558, 0.698898, 0.784762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4615, "volume": 222116, "typical_volume": 193715.2, "trend": 0.88657, "fair_value": 1.429671, "relative_strength": -64.998575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.843905, "energy": 64.175826, "activity_lines": [ 0.51456, 0.563435, 0.668658, 0.755363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4002, "volume": 405492, "typical_volume": 206736.95, "trend": 0.857243, "fair_value": 1.421595, "relative_strength": -69.098893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.58135, "energy": 65.965252, "activity_lines": [ 0.475607, 0.52432, 0.635049, 0.723985 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4865, "volume": 639021, "typical_volume": 226181.35, "trend": 0.831793, "fair_value": 1.414457, "relative_strength": -63.510285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.37352, "energy": 60.422958, "activity_lines": [ 0.470707, 0.507256, 0.612562, 0.700066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }