{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e49ac29-ffaf-48d8-b357-2ead6d18b7c1", "symbol": "MLAAH", "name": "Amatheon Agri Holding N.V.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.477, "architecture_energy": 95.533, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 28.2, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 68.79, "downward_expansion": 99.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0029, 0.003527, 0.004705, 0.006281 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.008817, "distance_from_trend": -0.716446, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.042853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.94166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -84.626898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.833333, "excess_performance": -0.886645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.716446, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.94166, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.846269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.833333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.001062, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 210755, "relative_activity": 1.7708, "balance": 0.001062, "dry_up": 2.336946, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2, "annualized_volatility": 0.779234, "from_high_reference": -0.916667, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008817, "fair_value_reference": 0.042853, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.038217, "positive_rate": 0.219512, "directional_follow_through": 0.731707, "median_excess_return": -0.053472, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.78125, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.163265, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.172431, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.74359, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.15715, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.127829, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.575, "worst_return": -0.594737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096226, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10837, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.706667, "worst_return": -0.789474, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.315068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.346734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.286667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, 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"energy": 97.635476, "activity_lines": [ 0.0039, 0.004536, 0.005893, 0.007668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 618283, "typical_volume": 103162.15, "trend": 0.01, "fair_value": 0.044567, "relative_strength": -82.114463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.237592, "energy": 94.63166, "activity_lines": [ 0.003467, 0.004182, 0.005469, 0.007178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 130501, "typical_volume": 109207.3, "trend": 0.009417, "fair_value": 0.043728, "relative_strength": -81.769156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.639655, "energy": 92.860761, "activity_lines": [ 0.0032, 0.003873, 0.00509, 0.006727 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 210755, "typical_volume": 119016.85, "trend": 0.008817, "fair_value": 0.042853, "relative_strength": -84.626898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.47706, "energy": 95.532845, "activity_lines": [ 0.0029, 0.003527, 0.004705, 0.006281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }