{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e532599-1b48-4c87-acd3-fee275722e9e", "symbol": "6237", "name": "C-Media Electronics Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.006, "architecture_energy": 62.372, "architecture_maturity": 16.443, "architecture_confidence": 71.887, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.52, "rotation_up": 16.48, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 71.61, "downward_expansion": 63.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.879999, 36.808091, 40.46326, 40.515016 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.099998, "trend_reference": 40.380823, "distance_from_trend": -0.15554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.329257, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263964, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.504686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102815, "excess_performance": -0.544187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008236, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.263964, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.415047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168395, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102815, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.709055, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1107045, "relative_activity": 0.224931, "balance": 0.709055, "dry_up": 0.27062, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162916, "annualized_volatility": 0.483885, "from_high_reference": -0.415679, "from_low_reference": 0.136667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.380823, "fair_value_reference": 46.329257, "structural_low": 30.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021066, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052286, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.237864, "worst_return": -0.3408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.102653, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.202844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.05824, "worst_return": -0.2064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010294, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.279046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231723, "worst_return": -0.4176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 38.567755, 41.858, 42.79039, 41.946162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.799999, "volume": 1830026, "typical_volume": 4923479.4, "trend": 40.829269, "fair_value": 46.397165, "relative_strength": -41.857099, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.940111, "energy": 51.046687, "activity_lines": [ 35.982468, 39.690074, 41.930434, 41.410294 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.450001, "volume": 939662, "typical_volume": 4908716.45, "trend": 40.597538, "fair_value": 46.354803, "relative_strength": -41.34814, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.373577, "energy": 58.564025, "activity_lines": [ 34.43322, 38.037917, 41.15528, 40.934213 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 34.099998, "volume": 1107045, "typical_volume": 4921707.5, "trend": 40.380823, "fair_value": 46.329257, "relative_strength": -41.504686, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.005956, "energy": 62.371618, "activity_lines": [ 33.879999, 36.808091, 40.46326, 40.515016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }