{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e5427d6-10a9-4827-a5a7-bc7e8e19bd4f", "symbol": "NECCLTD", "name": "North Eastern Carrying Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.853, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.078, "architecture_energy": 16.653, "architecture_maturity": 36.452, "architecture_confidence": 67.822, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.49, "rotation_up": 19.65, "upward_expansion": 42.93, "deceleration": 81.3, "rotation_down": 41.23, "downward_expansion": 34.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.266667, 15.667273, 15.71819, 15.407441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.23, "trend_reference": 15.166, "distance_from_trend": 0.00422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.229423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371425, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.228711, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076325, "excess_performance": 0.120034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074454, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371425, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000708, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.543262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116681, "relative_activity": 0.514784, "balance": 0.543262, "dry_up": 0.568901, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077226, "annualized_volatility": 0.500277, "from_high_reference": -0.365681, "from_low_reference": 0.443602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.166, "fair_value_reference": 24.229423, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.030424, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035528, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.668342, "worst_return": -0.123552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024127, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026955, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.435688, "worst_return": -0.172992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078067, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000473, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.30402, "worst_return": -0.337187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.086639, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.166998, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.262025, "worst_return": -0.337595, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.353468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147627, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031196, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159763, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032527, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005054, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054334, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11626, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.228332, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 402478, "typical_volume": 616360.75, "trend": 19.24053, "fair_value": 17.603619, "relative_strength": -14.297416, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", 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"fair_value": 24.303974, "relative_strength": -10.059361, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.904601, "energy": 15.048541, "activity_lines": [ 16.115333, 16.088, 15.755952, 15.454258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 77197, "typical_volume": 252084.0, "trend": 15.386333, "fair_value": 24.278974, "relative_strength": -9.532826, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.240672, "energy": 14.032601, "activity_lines": [ 15.768, 15.966909, 15.761524, 15.438387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.94, "volume": 73309, "typical_volume": 233687.55, "trend": 15.263333, "fair_value": 24.253269, "relative_strength": -12.94175, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.74678, "energy": 15.016433, "activity_lines": [ 15.432, 15.784909, 15.729381, 15.409591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.23, "volume": 116681, "typical_volume": 226660.1, "trend": 15.166, "fair_value": 24.229423, "relative_strength": -11.228711, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.077781, "energy": 16.652927, "activity_lines": [ 15.266667, 15.667273, 15.71819, 15.407441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }