{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e54c8de-2324-413b-b78b-44799bb489da", "symbol": "ITPS", "name": "iShares $ TIPS UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.518, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.652, "architecture_energy": 18.063, "architecture_maturity": 51.027, "architecture_confidence": 71.211, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.14, "rotation_up": 20.92, "upward_expansion": 55.63, "deceleration": 90.73, "rotation_down": 34.86, "downward_expansion": 23.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 223.426, 224.119818, 223.356714, 222.651935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 222.059998, "trend_reference": 221.496, "distance_from_trend": 0.002546, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 219.335961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012419, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.750631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023931, "excess_performance": -0.14696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002546, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137506, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023931, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582977, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7875, "relative_activity": 0.715808, "balance": 0.582977, "dry_up": 0.834473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008397, "annualized_volatility": 0.048767, "from_high_reference": -0.021417, "from_low_reference": 0.041069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 221.496, "fair_value_reference": 219.335961, "structural_low": 215.070007, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009127, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.028631, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.092284, "worst_return": -0.045902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016749, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000985, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.03582, "worst_return": -0.08433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002253, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056294, "worst_return": -0.06851, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025724, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006886, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"energy": 72.522683, "activity_lines": [ 225.340668, 224.565636, 223.152238, 222.255441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 225.279999, "volume": 9251, "typical_volume": 12091.85, "trend": 221.228666, "fair_value": 219.151218, "relative_strength": -10.070376, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.462362, "energy": 58.797693, "activity_lines": [ 225.326667, 224.842909, 223.420762, 222.537075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 222.360001, "volume": 6031, "typical_volume": 11216.95, "trend": 221.411, "fair_value": 219.247051, "relative_strength": -11.448672, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.961206, "energy": 29.622225, "activity_lines": [ 224.284001, 224.520364, 223.398524, 222.610064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 222.059998, "volume": 7875, "typical_volume": 11001.55, "trend": 221.496, "fair_value": 219.335961, "relative_strength": -13.750631, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.651653, "energy": 18.063221, "activity_lines": [ 223.426, 224.119818, 223.356714, 222.651935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }