{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e55a0af-fcc6-4096-9070-15cee9023c64", "symbol": "UTSL", "name": "DIREXION DAILY UTILITIES BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.937, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.034, "architecture_energy": 46.488, "architecture_maturity": 22.793, "architecture_confidence": 95.411, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.53, "rotation_up": 19.79, "upward_expansion": 13.1, "deceleration": 35.52, "rotation_down": 55.53, "downward_expansion": 79.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.144667, 44.265706, 44.792702, 45.700589 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.94, "trend_reference": 46.168449, "distance_from_trend": -0.134907, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.869325, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.853179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035688, "excess_performance": -0.161313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012825, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179238, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208532, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581191, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1527466, "relative_activity": 2.920396, "balance": 0.581191, "dry_up": 1.430427, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115011, "annualized_volatility": 0.569221, "from_high_reference": -0.27253, "from_low_reference": 0.098839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.168449, "fair_value_reference": 33.869325, "structural_low": 38.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004022, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.012943, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.160584, "worst_return": -0.158252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017737, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076933, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.310207, "worst_return": -0.300183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.118268, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035603, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.297871, "worst_return": -0.293682, "sufficient": true 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"close": 44.79, "volume": 415034, "typical_volume": 496478.9, "trend": 45.896378, "fair_value": 33.480865, "relative_strength": -8.347224, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.559664, "energy": 8.65704, "activity_lines": [ 45.794197, 45.029376, 45.689094, 46.229046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.94, "volume": 575964, "typical_volume": 489402.0, "trend": 46.138966, "fair_value": 33.626543, "relative_strength": -1.359878, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.348589, "energy": 10.528432, "activity_lines": [ 46.513333, 45.666447, 45.80297, 46.360893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.12, "volume": 474183, "typical_volume": 477615.7, "trend": 46.155733, "fair_value": 33.756674, "relative_strength": -13.986549, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.279315, "energy": 22.583576, "activity_lines": [ 44.984667, 45.131477, 45.378527, 46.101605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.94, "volume": 1527466, "typical_volume": 523033.8, "trend": 46.168449, "fair_value": 33.869325, "relative_strength": -20.853179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.033787, "energy": 46.487557, "activity_lines": [ 43.144667, 44.265706, 44.792702, 45.700589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }