{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e5fddef-c0d6-4c66-93a0-3db8cfb98cb7", "symbol": "TXR", "name": "TalonX Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.11, "architecture_energy": 51.645, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.326, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.63, "rotation_up": 27.56, "upward_expansion": 21.03, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 48.26, "downward_expansion": 73.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005867, 0.005764, 0.007014, 0.008361 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.0107, "distance_from_trend": -0.345794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.008817, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.500892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.461538, "excess_performance": -0.525244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.345794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179028, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279378, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.395009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.461538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.350692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2075948, "relative_activity": 1.041093, "balance": 0.350692, "dry_up": 2.126817, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 0.968463, "from_high_reference": -0.740741, "from_low_reference": 0.75 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0107, "fair_value_reference": 0.008817, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.425, "median_excess_return": -0.020947, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.141413, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.25, "worst_return": -0.545455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.170643, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.25, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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0.00829, 0.00983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.005, "volume": 5768395, "typical_volume": 1766561.6, "trend": 0.0116, "fair_value": 0.009022, "relative_strength": -54.541405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.419237, "energy": 88.424641, "activity_lines": [ 0.0052, 0.006091, 0.007838, 0.009387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 2512543, "typical_volume": 1764515.2, "trend": 0.0113, "fair_value": 0.008946, "relative_strength": -45.193683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.67601, "energy": 69.360556, "activity_lines": [ 0.0054, 0.005909, 0.007524, 0.009026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.005, "volume": 6606678, "typical_volume": 1994679.2, "trend": 0.011, "fair_value": 0.008875, "relative_strength": -55.354592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.162741, "energy": 67.04999, "activity_lines": [ 0.005267, 0.005618, 0.007152, 0.008619 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2075948, "typical_volume": 1994008.25, "trend": 0.0107, "fair_value": 0.008817, "relative_strength": -39.500892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.110467, "energy": 51.64457, "activity_lines": [ 0.005867, 0.005764, 0.007014, 0.008361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }