{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e67cacc-3072-4d42-8dea-62ec7d357100", "symbol": "RLC", "name": "Reedy Lagoon Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.579, "architecture_energy": 21.603, "architecture_maturity": 38.38, "architecture_confidence": 63.213, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.47, "rotation_up": 31.2, "upward_expansion": 27.88, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 14.3, "downward_expansion": 59.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002167, 0.002091, 0.00211, 0.002314 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.002717, "distance_from_trend": -0.079755, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.026077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375, "excess_performance": -0.438706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239766, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225757, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205035, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500000, "relative_activity": 4.439108, "balance": 1.205035, "dry_up": 2.281144, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046154, "annualized_volatility": 1.073402, "from_high_reference": -0.545455, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002717, "fair_value_reference": 0.003288, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.136336, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182296, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.152274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.483871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182296, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.207631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.354839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.531258, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.426677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.548387, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": 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-61.637032, "energy": 78.266394, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002018, 0.002169, 0.002484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 720122.05, "trend": 0.0028, "fair_value": 0.003399, "relative_strength": -32.937038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.175357, "energy": 59.92514, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002, 0.002129, 0.00243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 2604261, "typical_volume": 724474.25, "trend": 0.002767, "fair_value": 0.003362, "relative_strength": -32.739922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.183137, "energy": 57.980637, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002, 0.002098, 0.002378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 34482, "typical_volume": 723986.95, "trend": 0.002733, "fair_value": 0.003324, "relative_strength": -34.241963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.634671, "energy": 81.800482, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002, 0.002076, 0.002329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 2500000, "typical_volume": 563176.2, "trend": 0.002717, "fair_value": 0.003288, "relative_strength": -20.026077, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.57891, "energy": 21.60319, "activity_lines": [ 0.002167, 0.002091, 0.00211, 0.002314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }