{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e68a4ea-4aa6-49fd-8305-c0624813f7bc", "symbol": "MOH", "name": "Molina Healthcare Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.307, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.462, "architecture_energy": 25.206, "architecture_maturity": 87.324, "architecture_confidence": 81.464, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.05, "rotation_up": 26.61, "upward_expansion": 59.36, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 29.79, "downward_expansion": 20.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 202.762, 209.614, 200.618762, 189.127806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 196.45, "trend_reference": 177.935667, "distance_from_trend": 0.104051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 274.15109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283424, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.598901, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.491421, "excess_performance": 0.365796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104051, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104751, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283424, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005989, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130407, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.491421, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2989803, "relative_activity": 0.50807, "balance": 0.636429, "dry_up": 1.328604, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099905, "annualized_volatility": 0.490244, "from_high_reference": -0.197803, "from_low_reference": 0.622749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 177.935667, "fair_value_reference": 274.15109, "structural_low": 121.06, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.025039, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": 0.013861, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.153555, "worst_return": -0.118292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04216, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.026768, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.165062, "worst_return": -0.155184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011215, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.048946, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.171376, "worst_return": -0.185618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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225.37, "volume": 5822739, "typical_volume": 6270387.6, "trend": 175.775, "fair_value": 276.269872, "relative_strength": 20.246182, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.063028, "energy": 82.966379, "activity_lines": [ 226.97, 214.759273, 196.668905, 185.286366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 197.55, "volume": 17108964, "typical_volume": 6849637.95, "trend": 176.865333, "fair_value": 275.603782, "relative_strength": 5.980563, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.551857, "energy": 53.533501, "activity_lines": [ 218.576, 213.449636, 198.323905, 186.691204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 195.62, "volume": 5351861, "typical_volume": 6736797.5, "trend": 177.437333, "fair_value": 274.915705, "relative_strength": 3.73143, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.38339, "energy": 35.535272, "activity_lines": [ 209.393333, 211.560727, 199.542333, 187.901183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 196.45, "volume": 2989803, "typical_volume": 5884628.6, "trend": 177.935667, "fair_value": 274.15109, "relative_strength": 0.598901, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.462463, "energy": 25.206002, "activity_lines": [ 202.762, 209.614, 200.618762, 189.127806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }