{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e77dee6-b1e9-485e-9ae0-1c74f1bd8c47", "symbol": "NOVP", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 12 ETF - NOVEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.752, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.798, "architecture_energy": 73.318, "architecture_maturity": 40.196, "architecture_confidence": 80.461, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.75, "rotation_up": 66.36, "upward_expansion": 89.4, "deceleration": 49.42, "rotation_down": 23.1, "downward_expansion": 13.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.848693, 32.647395, 32.361233, 31.910999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.3286, "trend_reference": 31.401997, "distance_from_trend": 0.061353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.590631, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165718, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.463619, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084742, "excess_performance": -0.040883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028821, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010643, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084742, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.714108, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20926, "relative_activity": 1.078774, "balance": 1.714108, "dry_up": 1.080372, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014184, "annualized_volatility": 0.094896, "from_high_reference": -0.000342, "from_low_reference": 0.1461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.401997, "fair_value_reference": 28.590631, "structural_low": 29.085, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007431, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00639, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.027241, "worst_return": -0.024985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003067, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.032137, "worst_return": -0.012469, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.066484, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027719, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.066484, "worst_return": 0.066484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003175, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009688, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046943, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.836219, "energy": 60.177826, "activity_lines": [ 32.435067, 32.359667, 31.89169, 31.512542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.49, "volume": 32912, "typical_volume": 26970.9, "trend": 31.177843, "fair_value": 28.477775, "relative_strength": -2.440217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.063035, "energy": 55.243609, "activity_lines": [ 32.474427, 32.396798, 31.999656, 31.601838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.4566, "volume": 16778, "typical_volume": 26814.2, "trend": 31.239397, "fair_value": 28.512677, "relative_strength": -1.873414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.382259, "energy": 61.970396, "activity_lines": [ 32.489173, 32.418038, 32.095289, 31.684339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.7394, "volume": 13212, "typical_volume": 19139.35, "trend": 31.315377, "fair_value": 28.549431, "relative_strength": -1.971164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.365247, "energy": 66.587749, "activity_lines": [ 32.603047, 32.484511, 32.20697, 31.781113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.3286, "volume": 20926, "typical_volume": 19397.95, "trend": 31.401997, "fair_value": 28.590631, "relative_strength": -3.463619, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.798091, "energy": 73.317615, "activity_lines": [ 32.848693, 32.647395, 32.361233, 31.910999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }