{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e7a8f1c-4634-4ae0-bb24-af3ddd133c7b", "symbol": "2884", "name": "E.SUN Financial Holding Company, Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.403, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.591, "architecture_energy": 85.859, "architecture_maturity": 27.962, "architecture_confidence": 65.848, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.38, "rotation_up": 82.37, "upward_expansion": 99.19, "deceleration": 39.38, "rotation_down": 8.81, "downward_expansion": 21.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.586668, 36.366631, 34.447539, 33.575149 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 37.650002, "trend_reference": 32.752832, "distance_from_trend": 0.149519, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.110592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388756, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.350388, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.154261, "excess_performance": -0.287111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149519, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388756, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212202, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172182, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.637751, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186292925, "relative_activity": 0.884918, "balance": 1.637751, "dry_up": 0.992006, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048591, "annualized_volatility": 0.204317, "from_high_reference": -0.037084, "from_low_reference": 0.334859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.752832, "fair_value_reference": 27.110592, "structural_low": 29.404425, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.01542, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.008548, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.107383, "worst_return": -0.115616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0335, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.007381, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.17538, "worst_return": -0.092676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043091, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.007603, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.188848, "worst_return": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.743617, "energy": 81.325817, "activity_lines": [ 34.996396, 34.094462, 32.810027, 32.454914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.650002, "volume": 258738844, "typical_volume": 212197673.65, "trend": 32.36714, "fair_value": 26.909034, "relative_strength": -10.458129, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.09177, "energy": 92.127546, "activity_lines": [ 36.370001, 35.098529, 33.437656, 32.872921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.150002, "volume": 156624549, "typical_volume": 207506778.4, "trend": 32.548333, "fair_value": 27.010312, "relative_strength": -13.062781, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.408682, "energy": 91.137375, "activity_lines": [ 37.210001, 35.854923, 33.984603, 33.246009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 37.650002, "volume": 186292925, "typical_volume": 210520010.85, "trend": 32.752832, "fair_value": 27.110592, "relative_strength": -16.350388, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.591196, "energy": 85.859094, "activity_lines": [ 37.586668, 36.366631, 34.447539, 33.575149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }