{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e7d93d2-5375-425e-b3f6-513cfde95634", "symbol": "002215", "name": "Shenzhen Noposion Crop Science Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.06, "architecture_energy": 27.502, "architecture_maturity": 78.328, "architecture_confidence": 92.209, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.07, "rotation_up": 24.96, "upward_expansion": 14.6, "deceleration": 46.11, "rotation_down": 40.52, "downward_expansion": 66.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.956, 8.905636, 9.11607, 9.430456 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.14, "trend_reference": 9.889103, "distance_from_trend": -0.07575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.919751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.254511, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183064, "excess_performance": -0.190464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069356, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198969, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66391959, "relative_activity": 1.030065, "balance": 0.198969, "dry_up": 1.32497, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07641, "annualized_volatility": 0.35104, "from_high_reference": -0.312586, "from_low_reference": 0.106538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.889103, "fair_value_reference": 8.919751, "structural_low": 8.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.054271, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.062035, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.204128, "worst_return": -0.098171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.137864, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.069188, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.428325, "worst_return": -0.157966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.204694, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.197568, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.454167, "worst_return": -0.225775, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 8.68, "volume": 92694175, "typical_volume": 67265030.8, "trend": 10.034247, "fair_value": 8.875806, "relative_strength": -19.990922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.998706, "energy": 52.787256, "activity_lines": [ 8.752667, 8.889767, 9.268058, 9.628194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.46, "volume": 92814775, "typical_volume": 66196942.6, "trend": 9.974897, "fair_value": 8.886858, "relative_strength": -21.829066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.327284, "energy": 50.912676, "activity_lines": [ 8.640667, 8.789832, 9.159447, 9.526629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.27, "volume": 89698177, "typical_volume": 65832287.45, "trend": 9.925786, "fair_value": 8.903161, "relative_strength": -12.373388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.137047, "energy": 37.949728, "activity_lines": [ 8.846667, 8.861455, 9.140142, 9.481152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.14, "volume": 66391959, "typical_volume": 64454128.35, "trend": 9.889103, "fair_value": 8.919751, "relative_strength": -17.254511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.059807, "energy": 27.50153, "activity_lines": [ 8.956, 8.905636, 9.11607, 9.430456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }