{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e88cb7d-95cd-4a6d-b8de-ce67f9f00a16", "symbol": "603069", "name": "Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.31, "architecture_energy": 60.941, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.859, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 11.28, "deceleration": 60.86, "rotation_down": 54.0, "downward_expansion": 84.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.642667, 12.774, 14.142619, 15.416258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.15, "trend_reference": 17.446, "distance_from_trend": -0.246246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.824615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.726316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.421978, "excess_performance": -0.378774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.246246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301447, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.198123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.421978, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125672, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18637524, "relative_activity": 0.94527, "balance": 1.125672, "dry_up": 0.886818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102018, "annualized_volatility": 0.367338, "from_high_reference": -0.583597, "from_low_reference": 0.124893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.446, "fair_value_reference": 18.824615, "structural_low": 11.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.002711, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004306, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 2.462562, "worst_return": -0.286165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.076041, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012239, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.351942, "worst_return": -0.300777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086689, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.001939, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.841424, "worst_return": -0.266904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 89.601225, "activity_lines": [ 12.946, 14.079818, 15.496619, 17.00172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.15, "volume": 17722846, "typical_volume": 20252981.75, "trend": 18.896333, "fair_value": 18.938846, "relative_strength": -38.912369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.986366, "energy": 81.124466, "activity_lines": [ 12.596667, 13.537636, 15.063238, 16.540624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.93, "volume": 17886564, "typical_volume": 19950770.15, "trend": 18.498667, "fair_value": 18.894936, "relative_strength": -40.080797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.130031, "energy": 69.961049, "activity_lines": [ 12.311333, 13.049818, 14.653667, 16.091183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.8, "volume": 15693271, "typical_volume": 19763766.85, "trend": 17.912667, "fair_value": 18.858205, "relative_strength": -35.296032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.075262, "energy": 65.62284, "activity_lines": [ 12.425333, 12.823636, 14.366238, 15.723527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.15, "volume": 18637524, "typical_volume": 19716606.8, "trend": 17.446, "fair_value": 18.824615, "relative_strength": -34.726316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.310329, "energy": 60.941199, "activity_lines": [ 12.642667, 12.774, 14.142619, 15.416258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }