{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e893869-fd2d-46ee-89a6-78db3e4beb11", "symbol": "EXR", "name": "ENGAGE XR Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.436, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.255, "architecture_energy": 7.666, "architecture_maturity": 16.39, "architecture_confidence": 64.452, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.88, "rotation_up": 23.36, "upward_expansion": 31.26, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 26.19, "downward_expansion": 39.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0025, 0.002481, 0.00232, 0.002352 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0025, "trend_reference": 0.002521, "distance_from_trend": -0.008199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.011962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.791002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.891237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.33695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281998, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.791002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038484, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.518912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132407, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.027148, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1017223, "relative_activity": 0.138425, "balance": 3.027148, "dry_up": 0.090173, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.358462, "annualized_volatility": 1.299563, "from_high_reference": -0.776786, "from_low_reference": 1.173913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002521, "fair_value_reference": 0.011962, "structural_low": 0.00115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.053021, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.136842, "worst_return": -0.278689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.377049, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.455573, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.025, "worst_return": -0.414634, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.511475, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.602229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.4, "worst_return": -0.622951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.678689, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.841483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.557377, "worst_return": -0.8, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-12-24", "end": "2022-10-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.180328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-10-14", "end": "2022-11-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017241, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2022-12-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2022-12-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.573913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.360656, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.6685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.445687, "energy": 9.05444, "activity_lines": [ 0.0025, 0.002384, 0.002246, 0.002377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 570482, "typical_volume": 7347408.25, "trend": 0.002629, "fair_value": 0.012356, "relative_strength": -54.455502, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.536231, "energy": 8.019274, "activity_lines": [ 0.0025, 0.002428, 0.002269, 0.002363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 1039906, "typical_volume": 7368197.7, "trend": 0.002554, "fair_value": 0.012151, "relative_strength": -53.431377, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.976843, "energy": 7.685439, "activity_lines": [ 0.0025, 0.002459, 0.002293, 0.002355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 1017223, "typical_volume": 7348535.6, "trend": 0.002521, "fair_value": 0.011962, "relative_strength": -51.891237, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.254871, "energy": 7.666017, "activity_lines": [ 0.0025, 0.002481, 0.00232, 0.002352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }