{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e91839c-3189-4e4d-8bf2-5437dedd590d", "symbol": "301148", "name": "Xiamen Jiarong Technology Corp.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.662, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.88, "architecture_energy": 72.954, "architecture_maturity": 19.602, "architecture_confidence": 76.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 9.64, "upward_expansion": 16.51, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 75.08, "downward_expansion": 92.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.452666, 47.216727, 53.810021, 54.941397 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.419998, "trend_reference": 55.463288, "distance_from_trend": -0.14502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.444916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.667082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.770647, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097281, "excess_performance": -0.10468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14502, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05861, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.667082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.33372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007706, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.674802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.283011, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6257590, "relative_activity": 0.73542, "balance": 0.283011, "dry_up": 0.715446, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157967, "annualized_volatility": 0.546999, "from_high_reference": -0.454943, "from_low_reference": 1.001369 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.463288, "fair_value_reference": 28.444916, "structural_low": 35.259998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.077381, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030285, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.077381, "worst_return": -0.077381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.069597, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.089067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.069597, "worst_return": -0.069597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.170902, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.130495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.170902, "worst_return": -0.170902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"mixed", "direction": -26.396116, "energy": 30.366252, "activity_lines": [ 54.291999, 58.857003, 60.163865, 58.532349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.5, "volume": 5341573, "typical_volume": 9123105.8, "trend": 55.941903, "fair_value": 27.862466, "relative_strength": 2.077798, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.865322, "energy": 34.923295, "activity_lines": [ 52.356666, 56.426917, 59.272945, 58.105071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.5, "volume": 5290489, "typical_volume": 8999467.65, "trend": 55.726088, "fair_value": 27.997836, "relative_strength": -6.475236, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.981025, "energy": 62.317861, "activity_lines": [ 48.328, 52.890363, 57.634076, 57.173335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.73, "volume": 7749621, "typical_volume": 8908235.35, "trend": 55.559718, "fair_value": 28.134802, "relative_strength": -6.790673, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.614284, "energy": 68.322175, "activity_lines": [ 45.376667, 50.038909, 56.080389, 56.270361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.0, "volume": 5052847, "typical_volume": 8646966.0, "trend": 55.459222, "fair_value": 28.277343, "relative_strength": -3.108298, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.097299, "energy": 67.233465, "activity_lines": [ 43.812667, 47.976, 54.712772, 55.460057 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.419998, "volume": 6257590, "typical_volume": 8508868.2, "trend": 55.463288, "fair_value": 28.444916, "relative_strength": 0.770647, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.87997, "energy": 72.954188, "activity_lines": [ 44.452666, 47.216727, 53.810021, 54.941397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }