{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e969ce6-f0b1-4bed-b5ab-e2198a43f6a0", "symbol": "688359", "name": "Guangzhou Sanfu New Materials Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.535, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.889, "architecture_energy": 31.79, "architecture_maturity": 62.201, "architecture_confidence": 55.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.98, "rotation_up": 17.34, "upward_expansion": 31.72, "deceleration": 73.33, "rotation_down": 64.96, "downward_expansion": 31.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.655999, 134.356001, 134.15162, 123.600732 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 104.599998, "trend_reference": 108.96, "distance_from_trend": -0.040015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.117885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.606318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.444418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.38543, "excess_performance": 0.428634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040015, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.286099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.606318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144444, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.38543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.921171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37228487, "relative_activity": 1.876856, "balance": 0.921171, "dry_up": 1.737209, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.29458, "annualized_volatility": 0.938756, "from_high_reference": -0.513488, "from_low_reference": 0.911899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.96, "fair_value_reference": 65.117885, "structural_low": 70.699997, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.08882, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.049933, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.47984, "worst_return": -0.07836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.351716, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.27227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.439585, "worst_return": -0.024152, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.262407, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.104868, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.334322, "worst_return": 0.022374, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 146.216668, 154.374002, 139.367477, 125.128323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.5, "volume": 29465904, "typical_volume": 19281108.2, "trend": 107.694333, "fair_value": 64.857885, "relative_strength": -2.033139, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.347262, "energy": 21.787432, "activity_lines": [ 121.016001, 142.263638, 135.901191, 123.800366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.599998, "volume": 37228487, "typical_volume": 19835558.45, "trend": 108.96, "fair_value": 65.117885, "relative_strength": 14.444418, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.888698, "energy": 31.789818, "activity_lines": [ 108.655999, 134.356001, 134.15162, 123.600732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }