{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e9863b9-476a-4a78-b622-48b3c4a7de88", "symbol": "RPT", "name": "Rithm Property Trust Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.345, "architecture_energy": 73.46, "architecture_maturity": 18.828, "architecture_confidence": 84.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.2, "rotation_up": 11.08, "upward_expansion": 19.05, "deceleration": 34.2, "rotation_down": 68.4, "downward_expansion": 85.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.031333, 12.678544, 13.340131, 13.552841 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.06, "trend_reference": 13.947865, "distance_from_trend": -0.135352, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.380094, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306103, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.853951, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.208941, "excess_performance": -0.334566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135352, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.306103, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.753326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400787, "relative_activity": 1.254963, "balance": 0.753326, "dry_up": 2.86912, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100543, "annualized_volatility": 0.435076, "from_high_reference": -0.295736, "from_low_reference": 0.230612 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.947865, "fair_value_reference": 17.380094, "structural_low": 9.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.007523, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.02501, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.2125, "worst_return": -0.175776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010223, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.049459, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.097277, "worst_return": -0.19335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.069596, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.137591, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.064069, "worst_return": -0.244312, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 11.64, "volume": 1423553, "typical_volume": 290964.55, "trend": 14.169272, "fair_value": 17.600593, "relative_strength": -25.062046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.62933, "energy": 75.139827, "activity_lines": [ 12.442861, 13.168774, 13.625638, 13.80102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.32, "volume": 501319, "typical_volume": 309406.65, "trend": 14.057493, "fair_value": 17.491592, "relative_strength": -21.066171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.685169, "energy": 71.697595, "activity_lines": [ 12.23678, 12.927204, 13.492318, 13.681712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.06, "volume": 400787, "typical_volume": 319361.6, "trend": 13.947865, "fair_value": 17.380094, "relative_strength": -24.853951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.34546, "energy": 73.459764, "activity_lines": [ 12.031333, 12.678544, 13.340131, 13.552841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }