{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3e9ca941-88f7-4020-b139-34fdb9884475", "symbol": "ADP", "name": "Aeroports de Paris SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.405, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.874, "architecture_energy": 29.423, "architecture_maturity": 14.962, "architecture_confidence": 58.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.17, "rotation_up": 46.4, "upward_expansion": 73.91, "deceleration": 63.43, "rotation_down": 24.36, "downward_expansion": 7.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.519999, 112.650909, 110.296172, 109.633817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 116.199997, "trend_reference": 109.620429, "distance_from_trend": 0.060021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 110.916018, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047639, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.892061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002575, "excess_performance": -0.055887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060021, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023169, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061051, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.898583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 535056, "relative_activity": 1.174487, "balance": 0.898583, "dry_up": 1.135816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062762, "annualized_volatility": 0.316217, "from_high_reference": -0.132188, "from_low_reference": 0.213857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.620429, "fair_value_reference": 110.916018, "structural_low": 95.727937, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014573, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.003769, "regime_survival": 0.434783, "best_return": 0.134209, "worst_return": -0.130691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037436, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.122565, "worst_return": -0.161002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016552, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037756, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302138, "worst_return": -0.100513, 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108.334898, 106.624328, 106.844696, 108.25229 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 115.699997, "volume": 84852, "typical_volume": 526722.1, "trend": 110.643762, "fair_value": 111.155797, "relative_strength": -1.161065, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.722187, "energy": 24.959524, "activity_lines": [ 110.889531, 108.380213, 107.546063, 108.555703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 115.800003, "volume": 52785, "typical_volume": 500338.15, "trend": 110.397095, "fair_value": 111.121767, "relative_strength": -2.482804, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.881962, "energy": 41.737209, "activity_lines": [ 112.8, 110.062641, 108.260764, 108.888364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 111.599998, "volume": 471809, "typical_volume": 491433.65, "trend": 109.723762, "fair_value": 111.052323, "relative_strength": -4.084885, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.274529, "energy": 37.848, "activity_lines": [ 112.999999, 110.803626, 108.578322, 108.96597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 106.5, "volume": 383854, "typical_volume": 471542.75, "trend": 109.540429, "fair_value": 110.954433, "relative_strength": -8.322717, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.87758, "energy": 21.827019, "activity_lines": [ 111.193333, 110.398165, 108.443499, 108.757986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.400002, "volume": 379609, "typical_volume": 459718.3, "trend": 109.363762, "fair_value": 110.890472, "relative_strength": -8.573058, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.238169, "energy": 7.019424, "activity_lines": [ 109.34, 109.911336, 108.355818, 108.555377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.5, "volume": 771236, "typical_volume": 472702.85, "trend": 109.620429, "fair_value": 110.915338, "relative_strength": 1.050616, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.877474, "energy": 19.423049, "activity_lines": [ 112.106667, 111.708054, 109.521948, 109.209328 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 116.199997, "volume": 535056, "typical_volume": 455565.7, "trend": 109.620429, "fair_value": 110.916018, "relative_strength": -3.892061, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.874327, "energy": 29.422592, "activity_lines": [ 113.519999, 112.650909, 110.296172, 109.633817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }