{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3e9d700d-0742-41fb-a4c6-fc06da1b48ef",
    "symbol": "MAB",
    "name": "Mitchells & Butlers plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 63.192,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 38.56,
    "architecture_energy": 56.322,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.736,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.494,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.58,
        "rotation_up": 72.84,
        "upward_expansion": 54.89,
        "deceleration": 16.53,
        "rotation_down": 14.34,
        "downward_expansion": 25.22
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        273.7,
        264.9,
        257.519048,
        259.509677
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 282.5,
    "trend_reference": 263.6,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.0717,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 256.680769,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100589,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.179281,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.036697,
    "excess_performance": -0.014538,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0717,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002334,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100589,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078495,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001793,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090386,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036697,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.251403,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2051548,
      "relative_activity": 1.028601,
      "balance": 1.251403,
      "dry_up": 1.939614,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.055818,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.295792,
      "from_high_reference": -0.063018,
      "from_low_reference": 0.239035
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 263.6,
      "fair_value_reference": 256.680769,
      "structural_low": 228.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.042157,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.039941,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.073034,
        "worst_return": -0.058377,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 7.2e-05,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.040775,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.011236,
        "worst_return": -0.011092,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.086783,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027746,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.287799,
        "worst_return": -0.114232,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.264353,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.186125,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.029963,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.083168,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.066116,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.06367,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.047285,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.090741,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": 0.04898,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.184805,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.090909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.126904,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.063551,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 267.0,
        "volume": 4355916,
        "typical_volume": 2501676.95,
        "trend": 262.833333,
        "fair_value": 255.842949,
        "relative_strength": -4.071115,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -7.769598,
        "energy": 17.850623,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 264.0,
        "volume": 5923298,
        "typical_volume": 2159082.9,
        "trend": 262.966667,
        "fair_value": 256.075,
        "relative_strength": -5.866919,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -1.913541,
        "energy": 20.202779,
        "activity_lines": [
          262.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 276.0,
        "volume": 3143504,
        "typical_volume": 2001517.45,
        "trend": 263.35,
        "fair_value": 256.340385,
        "relative_strength": -2.452298,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.733754,
        "energy": 37.304693,
        "activity_lines": [
          267.833333,
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          258.274194
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 282.5,
        "volume": 2051548,
        "typical_volume": 1994503.35,
        "trend": 263.6,
        "fair_value": 256.680769,
        "relative_strength": -0.179281,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 38.560437,
        "energy": 56.321752,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}