{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ea1e727-0db6-4ef3-bc92-b7d4566c5b91", "symbol": "601002", "name": "Gem-Year Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.607, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.811, "architecture_energy": 20.006, "architecture_maturity": 66.338, "architecture_confidence": 59.645, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.66, "rotation_up": 34.32, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 44.1, "rotation_down": 23.09, "downward_expansion": 57.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.956, 4.797273, 5.002803, 5.139305 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.35, "trend_reference": 5.262012, "distance_from_trend": 0.016721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.45043, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.742526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010574, "excess_performance": 0.03263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01918, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202131, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163149, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027425, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.089456, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146194586, "relative_activity": 1.114209, "balance": 1.089456, "dry_up": 0.991673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081237, "annualized_volatility": 0.369819, "from_high_reference": -0.20381, "from_low_reference": 0.27381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.262012, "fair_value_reference": 4.45043, "structural_low": 4.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.005089, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.238754, "worst_return": -0.189974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005397, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029554, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.490132, "worst_return": -0.155825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035432, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.000758, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.476974, "worst_return": -0.162578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 4.78, "volume": 102318617, "typical_volume": 127027559.25, "trend": 5.262423, "fair_value": 4.443759, "relative_strength": -5.52065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.689841, "energy": 48.447572, "activity_lines": [ 4.628, 4.673455, 5.02476, 5.158992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.86, "volume": 86403964, "typical_volume": 127671547.45, "trend": 5.252735, "fair_value": 4.445344, "relative_strength": -4.151363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.370858, "energy": 34.290848, "activity_lines": [ 4.727333, 4.686545, 4.989098, 5.13303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.35, "volume": 146194586, "typical_volume": 131209259.65, "trend": 5.262012, "fair_value": 4.45043, "relative_strength": 2.742526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.811063, "energy": 20.006483, "activity_lines": [ 4.956, 4.797273, 5.002803, 5.139305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }