{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ea2701e-420d-4a22-bfee-a28d5332f764", "symbol": "MG", "name": "Mistras Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.85, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.945, "architecture_energy": 48.713, "architecture_maturity": 2.627, "architecture_confidence": 64.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.2, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 24.66, "deceleration": 50.68, "rotation_down": 67.95, "downward_expansion": 54.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.687333, 16.326909, 16.93, 16.69957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.08, "trend_reference": 16.207, "distance_from_trend": -0.007836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.36, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.552124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.469937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.096115, "excess_performance": -0.02951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.552124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296697, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034699, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096115, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 682062, "relative_activity": 0.79249, "balance": 0.883279, "dry_up": 0.891424, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084093, "annualized_volatility": 0.337769, "from_high_reference": -0.181259, "from_low_reference": 0.846154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.207, "fair_value_reference": 10.36, "structural_low": 13.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013011, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.062178, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.20386, "worst_return": -0.042071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.066882, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.086264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344994, "worst_return": 0.062612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.238376, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.130781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.397138, "worst_return": 0.079614, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.536993, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.372235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.80322, "worst_return": 0.270766, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120755, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.52935, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048268, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.7, "volume": 385114, "typical_volume": 651893.25, "trend": 6.701667, "fair_value": 7.094038, "relative_strength": -9.738381, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.272045, "energy": 61.730269, "activity_lines": [ 6.023333, 6.648364, 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15.879333, "fair_value": 10.12891, "relative_strength": 10.48351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.564639, "energy": 13.34791, "activity_lines": [ 17.342667, 17.571636, 17.416571, 16.801376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.71, "volume": 868919, "typical_volume": 905637.55, "trend": 15.976333, "fair_value": 10.179615, "relative_strength": 7.470175, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.454275, "energy": 12.130319, "activity_lines": [ 16.653333, 17.228, 17.308286, 16.790452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.46, "volume": 816833, "typical_volume": 888070.7, "trend": 16.053, "fair_value": 10.231282, "relative_strength": 5.574051, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.120988, "energy": 24.710788, "activity_lines": [ 16.076667, 16.874, 17.174143, 16.75714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.21, "volume": 701027, "typical_volume": 877379.8, "trend": 16.129333, "fair_value": 10.292949, "relative_strength": 1.985768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.975319, "energy": 42.791554, "activity_lines": [ 15.616667, 16.502545, 17.013143, 16.702753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.08, "volume": 682062, "typical_volume": 860656.65, "trend": 16.207, "fair_value": 10.36, "relative_strength": 3.469937, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.944529, "energy": 48.713335, "activity_lines": [ 15.687333, 16.326909, 16.93, 16.69957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }