{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ea30bb4-1761-4455-899f-bc9174d27993", "symbol": "ARB", "name": "ALTSHARES TR MERGER ARBITRAGE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.463, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.98, "architecture_energy": 19.32, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.601, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.32, "rotation_up": 43.94, "upward_expansion": 74.22, "deceleration": 59.03, "rotation_down": 21.92, "downward_expansion": 3.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.658407, 29.62792, 29.59505, 29.521992 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.69, "trend_reference": 29.408723, "distance_from_trend": 0.009564, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.755724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.440773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020275, "excess_performance": -0.10535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009564, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.078617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74612, "relative_activity": 0.874632, "balance": 2.078617, "dry_up": 0.728204, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028381, "annualized_volatility": 0.031938, "from_high_reference": -0.085899, "from_low_reference": 0.049117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.408723, "fair_value_reference": 27.755724, "structural_low": 28.3, "invalidation": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.643207, "energy": 16.023303, "activity_lines": [ 29.6015, 29.604407, 29.551335, 29.467074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.6488, "volume": 59831, "typical_volume": 82437.6, "trend": 29.365783, "fair_value": 27.699931, "relative_strength": -5.961707, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.281246, "energy": 18.857387, "activity_lines": [ 29.623073, 29.614145, 29.568024, 29.486728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.6091, "volume": 82626, "typical_volume": 84004.6, "trend": 29.386723, "fair_value": 27.727856, "relative_strength": -6.814423, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.845887, "energy": 20.593705, "activity_lines": [ 29.626827, 29.614071, 29.578861, 29.502426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.69, "volume": 74612, "typical_volume": 85306.75, "trend": 29.408723, "fair_value": 27.755724, "relative_strength": -9.440773, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.979622, "energy": 19.320132, "activity_lines": [ 29.658407, 29.62792, 29.59505, 29.521992 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }