{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eacb210-deed-44af-bf28-17910f1560ed", "symbol": "EDZ", "name": "DIREXION DAILY MSCI EMERGING MARKETS BEAR 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.559, "architecture_energy": 27.49, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.523, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.05, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 20.32, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 30.87, "downward_expansion": 58.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.70838, 16.37896, 17.007435, 19.120041 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.7, "trend_reference": 21.821959, "distance_from_trend": -0.280541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 68.388074, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.770428, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -52.897377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.406943, "excess_performance": -0.532568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.280541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.770428, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012448, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.528974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.406943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.587248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1173588, "relative_activity": 0.808975, "balance": 0.587248, "dry_up": 0.842649, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178988, "annualized_volatility": 0.81506, "from_high_reference": -0.687122, "from_low_reference": 0.21999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.821959, "fair_value_reference": 68.388074, "structural_low": 12.86896, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.052331, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.353975, "worst_return": -0.355701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.135932, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.164213, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.263065, "worst_return": -0.302351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.14698, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.240996, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.011749, "worst_return": -0.487321, "sufficient": true }, 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"fair_value": 69.507974, "relative_strength": -46.969255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.143503, "energy": 32.151946, "activity_lines": [ 16.9533, 16.375366, 17.721673, 19.93179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.9, "volume": 1601165, "typical_volume": 1490161.1, "trend": 22.33017, "fair_value": 68.976733, "relative_strength": -48.846483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.069854, "energy": 26.720178, "activity_lines": [ 17.08384, 16.478252, 17.389268, 19.547794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.7, "volume": 1173588, "typical_volume": 1450710.6, "trend": 21.821959, "fair_value": 68.388074, "relative_strength": -52.897377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.559019, "energy": 27.490143, "activity_lines": [ 16.70838, 16.37896, 17.007435, 19.120041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }