{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eaebaf0-ec08-40e3-ab90-f7aaa6515479", "symbol": "SUAS", "name": "iShares MSCI USA SRI UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.784, "architecture_energy": 49.562, "architecture_maturity": 64.375, "architecture_confidence": 73.246, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.71, "rotation_up": 44.9, "upward_expansion": 69.62, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 19.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.453333, 20.469364, 20.208048, 19.740086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.98, "trend_reference": 19.209167, "distance_from_trend": 0.092187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.195776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.578792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141148, "excess_performance": 0.089912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092187, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018811, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045788, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019379, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141148, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500264, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231134, "relative_activity": 0.571019, "balance": 0.500264, "dry_up": 0.970347, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020787, "annualized_volatility": 0.134531, "from_high_reference": -0.002852, "from_low_reference": 0.251044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.209167, "fair_value_reference": 16.195776, "structural_low": 16.950001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003305, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001935, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105347, "worst_return": -0.074593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032086, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018776, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115565, "worst_return": -0.102208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095166, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077953, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.129211, "worst_return": 0.04988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03016, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236674, "worst_return": -0.146848, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001953, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.074344, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031546, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000822, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.003534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093276, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.92, "volume": 1364991, "typical_volume": 2291302.65, "trend": 12.5325, "fair_value": 11.950657, "relative_strength": 10.766459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"relative_strength": 2.023772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.624831, "energy": 54.140834, "activity_lines": [ 20.370666, 20.408727, 20.006298, 19.553183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.09, "volume": 226733, "typical_volume": 428011.3, "trend": 19.123, "fair_value": 16.146337, "relative_strength": 0.515244, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.268806, "energy": 40.351566, "activity_lines": [ 20.250666, 20.359091, 20.070643, 19.62028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.98, "volume": 231134, "typical_volume": 404774.3, "trend": 19.209167, "fair_value": 16.195776, "relative_strength": 4.578792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.783591, "energy": 49.561743, "activity_lines": [ 20.453333, 20.469364, 20.208048, 19.740086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }