{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eb12fe4-8df3-4144-8219-d596a38b995b", "symbol": "PEY", "name": "Partners Group Private Equity Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.83, "architecture_energy": 63.14, "architecture_maturity": 58.419, "architecture_confidence": 83.342, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.57, "rotation_up": 14.71, "upward_expansion": 12.06, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 67.08, "downward_expansion": 85.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.172, 7.371636, 7.80733, 8.092564 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.2, "trend_reference": 8.523137, "distance_from_trend": -0.155241, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.033545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202971, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.102648, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24331, "excess_performance": -0.294546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155241, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079788, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202971, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07761, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24331, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.265928, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 738798, "relative_activity": 1.462082, "balance": 1.265928, "dry_up": 1.932123, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075827, "annualized_volatility": 0.343831, "from_high_reference": -0.306368, "from_low_reference": 0.052632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.523137, "fair_value_reference": 9.033545, "structural_low": 6.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.002088, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.017027, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.142258, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01532, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050192, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.114832, "worst_return": -0.203809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035393, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.066692, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135156, "worst_return": -0.112381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 8.817244, "fair_value": 9.057622, "relative_strength": -23.672018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.061832, "energy": 80.626938, "activity_lines": [ 7.484, 7.873455, 8.144572, 8.408549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.06, "volume": 341778, "typical_volume": 435699.2, "trend": 8.720989, "fair_value": 9.049425, "relative_strength": -28.540634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.966267, "energy": 82.785601, "activity_lines": [ 7.301333, 7.675273, 8.019419, 8.295178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 1807148, "typical_volume": 487444.65, "trend": 8.619531, "fair_value": 9.041102, "relative_strength": -29.473431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.674703, "energy": 78.94031, "activity_lines": [ 7.198667, 7.490182, 7.898777, 8.184147 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2, "volume": 738798, "typical_volume": 505305.45, "trend": 8.523137, "fair_value": 9.033545, "relative_strength": -27.102648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.83046, "energy": 63.140433, "activity_lines": [ 7.172, 7.371636, 7.80733, 8.092564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }