{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eb1b961-ece8-4fb2-838e-13a04f8cdc76", "symbol": "TEF", "name": "Telef\u00f3nica, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.975, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.088, "architecture_energy": 28.979, "architecture_maturity": 14.811, "architecture_confidence": 69.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.35, "rotation_up": 22.91, "upward_expansion": 10.43, "deceleration": 59.26, "rotation_down": 53.71, "downward_expansion": 49.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.571733, 3.594192, 3.662347, 3.673823 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.552, "trend_reference": 3.65556, "distance_from_trend": -0.028329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.699628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.156774, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020408, "excess_performance": -0.194655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028329, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241568, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.518082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4774, "relative_activity": 0.507489, "balance": 0.518082, "dry_up": 1.794017, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035407, "annualized_volatility": 0.175813, "from_high_reference": -0.240371, "from_low_reference": 0.091915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.65556, "fair_value_reference": 3.699628, "structural_low": 3.474, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007903, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011654, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.087506, "worst_return": -0.143227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143106, "worst_return": -0.168275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.165823, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.009997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294538, "worst_return": -0.073802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030199, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.101308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209465, "worst_return": -0.063176, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084611, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034285, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044262, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027994, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020138, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.003795, "volume": 2717, "typical_volume": 703.45, "trend": 3.085553, "fair_value": 2.860558, "relative_strength": 2.479245, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.2515, "energy": 49.103374, "activity_lines": [ 3.598859, 3.674576, 3.710057, 3.689467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.625, "volume": 17305, "typical_volume": 13697.05, "trend": 3.643193, "fair_value": 3.690406, "relative_strength": -21.738819, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.188258, "energy": 49.694559, "activity_lines": [ 3.593133, 3.657146, 3.701144, 3.688727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.592, "volume": 8789, "typical_volume": 10271.15, "trend": 3.647793, "fair_value": 3.692354, "relative_strength": -22.716047, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.332103, "energy": 49.815411, "activity_lines": [ 3.586467, 3.635201, 3.689978, 3.685425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.567, "volume": 36638, "typical_volume": 10769.75, "trend": 3.651027, "fair_value": 3.696279, "relative_strength": -22.412773, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.471125, "energy": 42.119531, "activity_lines": [ 3.578867, 3.612754, 3.676755, 3.680212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.552, "volume": 4774, "typical_volume": 9407.1, "trend": 3.65556, "fair_value": 3.699628, "relative_strength": -24.156774, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.087679, "energy": 28.979241, "activity_lines": [ 3.571733, 3.594192, 3.662347, 3.673823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }