{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eb29386-cc3e-46c6-9ec6-7ff23014ff52", "symbol": "600281", "name": "Shanxi Huayang New Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.639, "architecture_energy": 57.686, "architecture_maturity": 91.807, "architecture_confidence": 94.686, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 24.85, "upward_expansion": 10.04, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 56.04, "downward_expansion": 83.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.078, 4.139091, 4.535238, 4.846473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.36, "trend_reference": 5.271333, "distance_from_trend": -0.172885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.546731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.187389, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289902, "excess_performance": -0.246698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10214, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041069, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.308892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60515752, "relative_activity": 1.509312, "balance": 0.308892, "dry_up": 1.354415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095801, "annualized_volatility": 0.422829, "from_high_reference": -0.417891, "from_low_reference": 0.242165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.271333, "fair_value_reference": 4.546731, "structural_low": 3.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.003284, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.020199, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.26087, "worst_return": -0.21813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.048923, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030723, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.517928, "worst_return": -0.248503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.084177, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.350598, "worst_return": -0.279661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.949333, 4.135818, 4.585429, 4.908581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.36, "volume": 60515752, "typical_volume": 40094914.45, "trend": 5.271333, "fair_value": 4.546731, "relative_strength": -23.187389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.639007, "energy": 57.686047, "activity_lines": [ 4.078, 4.139091, 4.535238, 4.846473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }