{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eb4def1-c1b4-41f5-af3e-ed1a3e8a8a2d", "symbol": "6494", "name": "NFK Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.945, "architecture_energy": 22.774, "architecture_maturity": 78.128, "architecture_confidence": 76.695, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.09, "rotation_up": 27.2, "upward_expansion": 19.09, "deceleration": 45.09, "rotation_down": 26.56, "downward_expansion": 55.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.2, 98.527273, 99.552381, 103.141935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 97.0, "trend_reference": 109.366667, "distance_from_trend": -0.113075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 98.858974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.587489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.281481, "excess_performance": -0.443216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018804, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059538, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.281481, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2337100, "relative_activity": 0.924051, "balance": 0.440998, "dry_up": 0.589507, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063442, "annualized_volatility": 0.448227, "from_high_reference": -0.464088, "from_low_reference": 0.127907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.366667, "fair_value_reference": 98.858974, "structural_low": 86.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018862, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.07767, "worst_return": -0.189655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024764, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.177083, "worst_return": -0.155172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045928, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.09706, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.225, "worst_return": -0.106796, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": 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99.044872, "relative_strength": -30.255276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.002085, "energy": 42.028646, "activity_lines": [ 96.4, 96.4, 101.919048, 107.630108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.0, "volume": 560300, "typical_volume": 2986240.0, "trend": 114.633333, "fair_value": 98.980769, "relative_strength": -28.779258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.721262, "energy": 34.869844, "activity_lines": [ 97.333333, 96.363636, 101.219048, 106.511828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.0, "volume": 1169700, "typical_volume": 2839975.0, "trend": 113.1, "fair_value": 98.923077, "relative_strength": -26.447253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.414996, "energy": 28.424004, "activity_lines": [ 98.8, 97.145455, 100.842857, 105.632258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.0, "volume": 814500, "typical_volume": 2687025.0, "trend": 111.833333, "fair_value": 98.878205, "relative_strength": -29.445674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.232272, "energy": 24.564044, "activity_lines": [ 98.8, 97.436364, 100.247619, 104.658065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 102.0, "volume": 1642600, "typical_volume": 2549485.0, "trend": 110.666667, "fair_value": 98.891026, "relative_strength": -29.41928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.469154, "energy": 18.903046, "activity_lines": [ 100.0, 98.509091, 100.12381, 104.023656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 97.0, "volume": 2337100, "typical_volume": 2529190.0, "trend": 109.366667, "fair_value": 98.858974, "relative_strength": -29.587489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.945196, "energy": 22.774297, "activity_lines": [ 99.2, 98.527273, 99.552381, 103.141935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }