{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eb577a2-d080-401e-a962-9c388fc286e1", "symbol": "IDU", "name": "ISHARES TRUST U.S. UTILITIES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.306, "architecture_energy": 11.813, "architecture_maturity": 31.578, "architecture_confidence": 63.356, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.8, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 29.18, "deceleration": 55.83, "rotation_down": 42.01, "downward_expansion": 26.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.377333, 114.042098, 113.901993, 114.16366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 110.95, "trend_reference": 113.92028, "distance_from_trend": -0.026073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.816462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.516097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017408, "excess_performance": -0.108217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026073, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.157943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05272, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1417618, "relative_activity": 1.556589, "balance": 0.731205, "dry_up": 0.940992, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032741, "annualized_volatility": 0.180613, "from_high_reference": -0.073235, "from_low_reference": 0.080139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.92028, "fair_value_reference": 95.816462, "structural_low": 108.388843, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017908, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007908, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.119789, "worst_return": -0.07603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045775, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.070578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095967, "worst_return": -0.142039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022744, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.088117, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.184381, 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889445.85, "trend": 113.039477, "fair_value": 94.853623, "relative_strength": -6.719485, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.260192, "energy": 26.259227, "activity_lines": [ 115.08941, 113.926324, 114.180198, 114.064056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.84, "volume": 200343, "typical_volume": 886637.55, "trend": 113.326069, "fair_value": 95.082151, "relative_strength": -5.388465, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.383905, "energy": 31.273168, "activity_lines": [ 115.222667, 114.228182, 114.184107, 114.180219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.16, "volume": 709216, "typical_volume": 889609.9, "trend": 113.647788, "fair_value": 95.337652, "relative_strength": -2.803131, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.135905, "energy": 41.660149, "activity_lines": [ 115.936667, 114.904036, 114.430676, 114.427569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.39, "volume": 1100746, "typical_volume": 923051.45, "trend": 113.782809, "fair_value": 95.583681, "relative_strength": -7.51694, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.027919, "energy": 12.750831, "activity_lines": [ 114.749333, 114.590789, 114.222882, 114.346422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.95, "volume": 1417618, "typical_volume": 910721.0, "trend": 113.92028, "fair_value": 95.816462, "relative_strength": -11.516097, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.306329, "energy": 11.812904, "activity_lines": [ 113.377333, 114.042098, 113.901993, 114.16366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }