{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3ec8e168-0384-4356-b2f1-ffa8ffcf6a46",
    "symbol": "EST",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI Eastern Europe Ex Russia UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 89.015,
    "architecture_energy": 92.507,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.235,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.828,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 2.42,
        "rotation_up": 82.83,
        "upward_expansion": 99.29,
        "deceleration": 39.34,
        "rotation_down": 12.75,
        "downward_expansion": 21.29
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        46.167666,
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        44.163309,
        43.005892
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 47.459999,
    "trend_reference": 41.615667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.140436,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 29.536327,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.606835,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 6.397378,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.184575,
    "excess_performance": 0.013683,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.140436,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076244,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.606835,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081377,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063974,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015538,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.184575,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.094705,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 52140,
      "relative_activity": 1.528918,
      "balance": 4.094705,
      "dry_up": 1.253953,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.027327,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.201658,
      "from_high_reference": -0.007009,
      "from_low_reference": 0.511706
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.615667,
      "fair_value_reference": 29.536327,
      "structural_low": 35.935001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 40,
        "median_return": 0.019563,
        "positive_rate": 0.675,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.675,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001678,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.142857,
        "worst_return": -0.100887,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
        "best_return": 0.167395,
        "worst_return": -0.032352,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
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        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.046489,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.215891,
        "sufficient": false
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-07-05",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "fair_value": 27.354051,
        "relative_strength": 4.93861,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 76.733712,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 45507.85,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 38.944333,
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        "relative_strength": 4.233803,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 34639.45,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 44.27,
        "volume": 2029,
        "typical_volume": 31632.45,
        "trend": 40.1665,
        "fair_value": 28.729596,
        "relative_strength": 1.680743,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 31507.9,
        "trend": 40.4735,
        "fair_value": 28.887705,
        "relative_strength": 3.256383,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.840812,
        "energy": 66.752255,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 44.314999,
        "volume": 21406,
        "typical_volume": 31005.15,
        "trend": 40.7305,
        "fair_value": 29.041103,
        "relative_strength": 3.38261,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.897206,
        "energy": 58.078081,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.258667,
          43.915636,
          42.924762,
          41.960129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 45.52,
        "volume": 53802,
        "typical_volume": 31681.95,
        "trend": 41.027667,
        "fair_value": 29.198955,
        "relative_strength": 6.18588,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.334854,
        "energy": 79.299406,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.736667,
          44.276545,
          43.290262,
          42.269129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 46.294998,
        "volume": 43704,
        "typical_volume": 32299.5,
        "trend": 41.3075,
        "fair_value": 29.363571,
        "relative_strength": 7.02233,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.802121,
        "energy": 84.813224,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.363999,
          44.712818,
          43.692905,
          42.608957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 47.459999,
        "volume": 52140,
        "typical_volume": 34102.55,
        "trend": 41.615667,
        "fair_value": 29.536327,
        "relative_strength": 6.397378,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 89.015458,
        "energy": 92.50688,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.167666,
          45.294727,
          44.163309,
          43.005892
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}