{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3eca65e2-c462-41d7-a667-cd39497a4dd8", "symbol": "AVBP", "name": "ArriVent BioPharma, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.811, "architecture_energy": 19.177, "architecture_maturity": 61.254, "architecture_confidence": 93.871, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.69, "rotation_up": 27.07, "upward_expansion": 57.45, "deceleration": 88.15, "rotation_down": 27.12, "downward_expansion": 18.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.249333, 32.019818, 31.131952, 29.594366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.84, "trend_reference": 27.432167, "distance_from_trend": 0.124228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.22015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.571064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.410796, "excess_performance": 0.223342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124228, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328157, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115711, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -7.3e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.410796, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.431036, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1689845, "relative_activity": 0.673345, "balance": 1.431036, "dry_up": 0.959426, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113317, "annualized_volatility": 0.417789, "from_high_reference": -0.139269, "from_low_reference": 0.915528 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.432167, "fair_value_reference": 23.22015, "structural_low": 20.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-26", "close": 20.0, "volume": 1992580, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 21.85, "volume": 1204254, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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31.97, 30.692364, 28.854952, 27.253441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 34.67, "volume": 1960615, "typical_volume": 2565908.8, "trend": 25.7805, "fair_value": 22.882891, "relative_strength": 30.22106, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.602512, "energy": 76.620831, "activity_lines": [ 33.066667, 31.515818, 29.582571, 27.848419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.69, "volume": 2593000, "typical_volume": 2635525.45, "trend": 26.0895, "fair_value": 22.966667, "relative_strength": 23.825537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.842958, "energy": 73.095876, "activity_lines": [ 33.543333, 32.083818, 30.158714, 28.35871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.19, "volume": 2249382, "typical_volume": 2668248.45, "trend": 26.462167, "fair_value": 23.045308, "relative_strength": 26.743022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.303021, "energy": 69.582294, "activity_lines": [ 33.630667, 32.493636, 30.636286, 28.816806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.73, "volume": 3006987, "typical_volume": 2606000.05, "trend": 26.7875, "fair_value": 23.111603, "relative_strength": 22.580077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.013151, "energy": 44.730018, "activity_lines": [ 33.054667, 32.570909, 30.926143, 29.156667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.82, "volume": 2684992, "typical_volume": 2559249.15, "trend": 27.088167, "fair_value": 23.162424, "relative_strength": 14.019372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.986891, "energy": 27.317497, "activity_lines": [ 31.842667, 32.230727, 30.994571, 29.352312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.84, "volume": 1689845, "typical_volume": 2509626.65, "trend": 27.432167, "fair_value": 23.22015, "relative_strength": 11.571064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.810982, "energy": 19.176615, "activity_lines": [ 31.249333, 32.019818, 31.131952, 29.594366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }