{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ecea835-3100-4220-a03b-e072c65eab81", "symbol": "EMEG", "name": "iShares MSCI EM CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.821, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.027, "architecture_energy": 24.099, "architecture_maturity": 65.508, "architecture_confidence": 79.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.43, "rotation_up": 18.42, "upward_expansion": 52.47, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.19, "downward_expansion": 18.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.968333, 8.0946, 8.060076, 7.869344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.054, "trend_reference": 7.624367, "distance_from_trend": 0.05635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.862596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.373794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.454236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128485, "excess_performance": -0.042406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.373794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945067, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 700799, "relative_activity": 1.409363, "balance": 0.945067, "dry_up": 1.532649, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043972, "annualized_volatility": 0.228635, "from_high_reference": -0.073721, "from_low_reference": 0.360014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.624367, "fair_value_reference": 5.862596, "structural_low": 6.651, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024354, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036764, "active": false }, { 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"trend": 7.4564, "fair_value": 5.783625, "relative_strength": 2.725675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.752991, "energy": 59.357589, "activity_lines": [ 8.369267, 8.298018, 7.996805, 7.766254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.816, "volume": 826716, "typical_volume": 468821.9, "trend": 7.500233, "fair_value": 5.803199, "relative_strength": -1.728764, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.389097, "energy": 36.114599, "activity_lines": [ 8.1786, 8.224291, 8.0071, 7.789454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.935, "volume": 546508, "typical_volume": 467431.1, "trend": 7.548167, "fair_value": 5.822048, "relative_strength": -0.184068, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.154719, "energy": 23.094069, "activity_lines": [ 8.059, 8.176945, 8.027019, 7.817503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.884, "volume": 974387, "typical_volume": 485357.3, "trend": 7.5863, "fair_value": 5.841321, "relative_strength": -1.590385, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.719788, "energy": 24.09903, "activity_lines": [ 7.969467, 8.119255, 8.037595, 7.83917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.054, "volume": 700799, "typical_volume": 497245.35, "trend": 7.624367, "fair_value": 5.862596, "relative_strength": -2.454236, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.026515, "energy": 24.099406, "activity_lines": [ 7.968333, 8.0946, 8.060076, 7.869344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }