{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ed0da20-4db7-4d16-aceb-c6c8790289a9", "symbol": "002577", "name": "Shenzhen Rapoo Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 49.103, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.755, "architecture_energy": 20.738, "architecture_maturity": 29.079, "architecture_confidence": 83.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.63, "rotation_up": 31.79, "upward_expansion": 57.31, "deceleration": 84.23, "rotation_down": 32.21, "downward_expansion": 18.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.924666, 18.156909, 18.030762, 17.739097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.799999, "trend_reference": 17.607, "distance_from_trend": 0.067757, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.19468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093361, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.733604, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035242, "excess_performance": 0.027842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067757, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002813, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093361, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017336, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.461607, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22975096, "relative_activity": 1.41593, "balance": 1.461607, "dry_up": 1.572674, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092308, "annualized_volatility": 0.416043, "from_high_reference": -0.188606, "from_low_reference": 0.278042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.607, "fair_value_reference": 17.19468, "structural_low": 14.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.012749, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.021642, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.172321, "worst_return": -0.170688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.079854, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035892, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.316964, "worst_return": -0.065719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028184, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.03899, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.826531, "worst_return": -0.165832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.603499, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.234365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.734821, "worst_return": 0.062167, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.237354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049756, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.001057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169882, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 15.21, "volume": 19490841, "typical_volume": 40512326.5, "trend": 14.617333, "fair_value": 12.305705, "relative_strength": 16.029278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"relative_strength": -11.25403, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.827735, "energy": 37.028723, "activity_lines": [ 18.810667, 18.635818, 17.89981, 17.708796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.889999, "volume": 26779094, "typical_volume": 13884362.45, "trend": 17.622667, "fair_value": 17.166859, "relative_strength": -4.916541, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.104502, "energy": 22.471317, "activity_lines": [ 18.517333, 18.52, 17.948286, 17.725484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.07, "volume": 23351241, "typical_volume": 14363240.0, "trend": 17.562333, "fair_value": 17.169295, "relative_strength": -14.13292, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.185386, "energy": 8.374745, "activity_lines": [ 17.643333, 18.071091, 17.824143, 17.625312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.1, "volume": 28968369, "typical_volume": 15420114.55, "trend": 17.574, "fair_value": 17.178013, "relative_strength": -1.145902, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.560594, "energy": 18.433155, "activity_lines": [ 17.676, 18.042727, 17.897238, 17.66 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 22975096, "typical_volume": 16226152.35, "trend": 17.607, "fair_value": 17.19468, "relative_strength": -1.733604, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.754874, "energy": 20.738369, "activity_lines": [ 17.924666, 18.156909, 18.030762, 17.739097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }