{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ed8550d-1e2a-4932-a005-06e2aab2114b", "symbol": "002889", "name": "Shenzhen Easttop Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.709, "architecture_energy": 19.794, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.594, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.41, "rotation_up": 27.07, "upward_expansion": 19.28, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 24.3, "downward_expansion": 55.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.742, 11.4889, 11.830362, 12.330205 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.99, "trend_reference": 13.12173, "distance_from_trend": -0.086249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.381986, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.176911, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203851, "excess_performance": -0.211251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098436, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104019, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203851, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.190667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38774405, "relative_activity": 2.645638, "balance": 1.190667, "dry_up": 2.319653, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089425, "annualized_volatility": 0.327349, "from_high_reference": -0.305732, "from_low_reference": 0.189484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.12173, "fair_value_reference": 13.381986, "structural_low": 10.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.001529, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014283, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.070222, "worst_return": -0.154894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018228, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.080273, "worst_return": -0.123892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.091306, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.115525, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178053, "worst_return": -0.027064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 64.100853, "activity_lines": [ 11.08, 11.409675, 12.140208, 12.783877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.78, "volume": 18295127, "typical_volume": 10392372.3, "trend": 13.552064, "fair_value": 13.351611, "relative_strength": -19.788842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.902954, "energy": 52.391335, "activity_lines": [ 11.316667, 11.393084, 12.047532, 12.66084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.92, "volume": 15936576, "typical_volume": 10522462.0, "trend": 13.36873, "fair_value": 13.356972, "relative_strength": -25.182834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.638265, "energy": 47.137485, "activity_lines": [ 11.246667, 11.249122, 11.888809, 12.49103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.12, "volume": 62981018, "typical_volume": 13204085.75, "trend": 13.234064, "fair_value": 13.370708, "relative_strength": -14.860373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.071014, "energy": 27.16222, "activity_lines": [ 11.577333, 11.371781, 11.86099, 12.410467 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.99, "volume": 38774405, "typical_volume": 14655975.5, "trend": 13.12173, "fair_value": 13.381986, "relative_strength": -19.176911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.708679, "energy": 19.793671, "activity_lines": [ 11.742, 11.4889, 11.830362, 12.330205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }