{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ef20838-2bcb-4dad-a51a-e08ebd09b333", "symbol": "600141", "name": "Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.894, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.038, "architecture_energy": 43.528, "architecture_maturity": 19.061, "architecture_confidence": 61.043, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.45, "rotation_up": 8.5, "upward_expansion": 3.68, "deceleration": 53.28, "rotation_down": 69.84, "downward_expansion": 77.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.250667, 33.167775, 33.358415, 33.931344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.469999, "trend_reference": 35.205593, "distance_from_trend": -0.106108, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.945192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.380788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.224304, "excess_performance": -0.1811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.314251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.366853, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219284042, "relative_activity": 1.395737, "balance": 1.366853, "dry_up": 1.235893, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173397, "annualized_volatility": 0.782214, "from_high_reference": -0.388219, "from_low_reference": 0.320604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.205593, "fair_value_reference": 23.945192, "structural_low": 27.280001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.001377, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.007674, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.278917, "worst_return": -0.188834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085182, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.083455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.365442, "worst_return": -0.352756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004255, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.069425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302248, "worst_return": -0.382016, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.018352, "energy": 16.069955, "activity_lines": [ 35.776, 35.626473, 34.449622, 34.996276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.620001, "volume": 200723531, "typical_volume": 157666069.9, "trend": 35.51226, "fair_value": 23.852148, "relative_strength": -5.720336, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.86012, "energy": 31.850175, "activity_lines": [ 32.99, 34.692591, 33.998918, 34.607571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.870001, "volume": 156725890, "typical_volume": 156978739.15, "trend": 35.30926, "fair_value": 23.896003, "relative_strength": -8.65184, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.251432, "energy": 43.296444, "activity_lines": [ 30.522667, 33.661322, 33.5265, 34.179039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.469999, "volume": 219284042, "typical_volume": 157109877.5, "trend": 35.205593, "fair_value": 23.945192, "relative_strength": -3.380788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.037642, "energy": 43.528474, "activity_lines": [ 30.250667, 33.167775, 33.358415, 33.931344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }