{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ef769f2-1857-4cef-a88c-371072d0f6f9", "symbol": "DELTA", "name": "Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 94.373, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -21.5, "architecture_energy": 33.749, "architecture_maturity": 42.176, "architecture_confidence": 86.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.94, "rotation_up": 14.15, "upward_expansion": 44.13, "deceleration": 77.24, "rotation_down": 52.48, "downward_expansion": 38.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 283.733333, 298.509091, 310.342857, 302.515854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 262.0, "trend_reference": 282.874412, "distance_from_trend": -0.073794, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 144.945269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.807579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.193985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.268562, "excess_performance": 0.076237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.807579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.644417, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.487477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.268562, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.077598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77260600, "relative_activity": 1.302138, "balance": 1.077598, "dry_up": 1.240727, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098356, "annualized_volatility": 0.510182, "from_high_reference": -0.288043, "from_low_reference": 0.868985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 282.874412, "fair_value_reference": 144.945269, "structural_low": 213.517302, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.064736, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.047825, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254545, "worst_return": -0.489796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.071391, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.445161, "worst_return": -0.545004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.079192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.999015, "worst_return": -0.366962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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140.331711, "relative_strength": 18.432144, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.088236, "energy": 26.538801, "activity_lines": [ 317.866667, 327.0, 318.485714, 299.124719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 300.0, "volume": 60061000, "typical_volume": 62083235.0, "trend": 271.536216, "fair_value": 141.588202, "relative_strength": 11.3907, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.095103, "energy": 26.245632, "activity_lines": [ 309.266667, 321.781818, 317.938095, 301.243632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 307.0, "volume": 73064100, "typical_volume": 60367240.0, "trend": 276.115665, "fair_value": 142.864291, "relative_strength": 12.743526, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.336242, "energy": 21.304009, "activity_lines": [ 307.2, 318.036364, 317.957143, 303.531618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 278.0, "volume": 84081800, "typical_volume": 59724415.0, "trend": 279.628672, "fair_value": 143.935527, "relative_strength": 2.59406, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.979095, "energy": 21.730564, "activity_lines": [ 297.266667, 309.236364, 314.966667, 303.653188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 262.0, "volume": 77260600, "typical_volume": 59333660.0, "trend": 282.874412, "fair_value": 144.945269, "relative_strength": -3.193985, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -21.500287, "energy": 33.749102, "activity_lines": [ 283.733333, 298.509091, 310.342857, 302.515854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }