{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ef7a3c6-c559-401a-8059-373d7643f21d", "symbol": "XCD", "name": "iShares S&P Global Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.01, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.027, "architecture_energy": 36.383, "architecture_maturity": 25.033, "architecture_confidence": 54.721, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.24, "rotation_up": 59.27, "upward_expansion": 50.38, "deceleration": 25.7, "rotation_down": 23.16, "downward_expansion": 20.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.821334, 57.332803, 57.197464, 57.100266 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 59.650002, "trend_reference": 57.471087, "distance_from_trend": 0.037913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.228267, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142102, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.148138, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000838, "excess_performance": -0.121259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037913, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142102, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013149, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019111, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.26087, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6100, "relative_activity": 1.222445, "balance": 1.26087, "dry_up": 1.287575, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028166, "annualized_volatility": 0.198153, "from_high_reference": -0.096212, "from_low_reference": 0.12696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.471087, "fair_value_reference": 52.228267, "structural_low": 52.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009323, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.014547, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.146999, "worst_return": -0.10479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037515, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.023119, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.180221, "worst_return": -0.052741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028768, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207102, "worst_return": -0.148499, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023887, 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"relative_strength": -11.399184, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.170135, "energy": 15.524467, "activity_lines": [ 56.885368, 56.942236, 56.844561, 57.154665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.27, "volume": 9900, "typical_volume": 4830.0, "trend": 57.786394, "fair_value": 51.989778, "relative_strength": -11.159095, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.023736, "energy": 9.051632, "activity_lines": [ 57.041563, 56.982993, 56.90193, 57.114238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.169998, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 4865.0, "trend": 57.607087, "fair_value": 52.048931, "relative_strength": -14.24242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.676717, "energy": 25.229554, "activity_lines": [ 56.475332, 56.650487, 56.76925, 56.945438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.900002, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 4780.0, "trend": 57.543087, "fair_value": 52.132148, "relative_strength": -9.265318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.084494, "energy": 5.576532, "activity_lines": [ 56.939333, 56.837898, 56.904953, 56.964336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.650002, "volume": 6100, "typical_volume": 4990.0, "trend": 57.471087, "fair_value": 52.228267, "relative_strength": -9.148138, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.027335, "energy": 36.382723, "activity_lines": [ 57.821334, 57.332803, 57.197464, 57.100266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }